As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 21 at 94.0% in Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — $184.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, September 21, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +2.9 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, September 21 has traded between 30.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.0% |
September 21 is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 | 94¢ | 94.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.8K | 1.5% |
| September 29 | 87¢ | 87.1% | +17.1 pts | $11.3K | 6.1% |
| September 28 | 86¢ | 85.5% | -0.5 pts | $26.0K | 14.1% |
| September 17 | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| September 20 | 8¢ | 8.1% | -0.4 pts | $43.1K | 23.3% |
| September 27 | 8¢ | 8.0% | -6.0 pts | $662 | 0.4% |
| September 30 | 8¢ | 7.6% | -8.8 pts | $18.8K | 10.2% |
| September 24 | 7¢ | 7.4% | -0.1 pts | $963 | 0.5% |
| September 26 | 5¢ | 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $15.9K | 8.6% |
| September 22 | 4¢ | 4.1% | — | $2.6K | 1.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$184.9K has been traded on this event in total, $203 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 114 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decimal-Cage | Yes | 114 | $107 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 96 | $91 |
| Grimy-Turnstile | No | 79 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 74 | $4 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 50 | $3 |
| Wicked-Flour | Yes | 40 | $38 |
| Ill-Informed-Undertaker | Yes | 31 | $29 |
| Harmful-Amenity | No | 25 | $1 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 23 | $1 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 20 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $53 |
| Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $36 |
| Oct 21, 12:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 21 at 94.0%. Next is September 29 at 87.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt?via=bro
$184.9K in total volume, with $203 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
September 21, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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