Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 21 at 94.0% in Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — $184.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $203.
Leading outcome
September 21
94%
A 94.0% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +2.9 pts30D +0.4 pts
September 2194.0%
September 2987.1%
Bid
92¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since September 17, 2026: 30.0% – 98.6% · Opened at 30.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Category
Oil, Iran, Hormuz, tanker, Military, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET
Total volume
$184.9K
Volume (24h)
$203
Liquidity
$713
Markets
10
Leading outcome
September 21 — 94.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, September 21, is priced at 94.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +2.9 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, September 21 has traded between 30.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 93.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202693.0%
Oct 16, 202693.0%
Oct 18, 202693.0%
Oct 19, 202693.0%
Oct 20, 202693.0%
Oct 22, 202693.0%
Oct 23, 202693.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

September 21 is favored at 94.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
September 2194¢94.0%+1.0 pts$2.8K1.5%
September 2987¢87.1%+17.1 pts$11.3K6.1%
September 2886¢85.5%-0.5 pts$26.0K14.1%
September 1750¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
September 208¢8.1%-0.4 pts$43.1K23.3%
September 278¢8.0%-6.0 pts$6620.4%
September 308¢7.6%-8.8 pts$18.8K10.2%
September 247¢7.4%-0.1 pts$9630.5%
September 265¢5.0%-1.0 pts$15.9K8.6%
September 224¢4.1%—$2.6K1.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$184.9K has been traded on this event in total, $203 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 114 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Decimal-CageYes114$107
Oddball-PoisonYes96$91
Grimy-TurnstileNo79$5
Belated-GlueNo74$4
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationNo50$3
Wicked-FlourYes40$38
Ill-Informed-UndertakerYes31$29
Harmful-AmenityNo25$1
Direct-ChainstayNo23$1
Straight-WrinkleYes20$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $21.1K at 99.8%SELL No — $422 at 2.0%BUY No — $82 at 93.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:17 PM ETNoSELL11.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:17 PM ETYesBUY89.0%$53
Oct 24, 12:22 PM ETNoBUY11.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:20 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:11 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$2
Oct 24, 08:11 AM ETNoBUY89.0%$36
Oct 21, 12:25 PM ETNoBUY99.7%$1
Oct 21, 12:25 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$18
Oct 21, 11:17 AM ETYesBUY88.0%$18
Oct 21, 09:49 AM ETYesBUY88.0%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 21 at 94.0%. Next is September 29 at 87.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...??

$184.9K in total volume, with $203 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.

When does Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

September 21, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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