Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 27.5% in Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...? — $34.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
27%
A 27.5% price implies roughly a 27-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.0 pts7D −20.2 pts30D −2.6 pts
Bid
26¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 29, 2026: 15.2% – 71.2% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...?
Category
Politics, Mexico, Extradite, cartel
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$34.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$22.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 27.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 27.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -20.2 pts; past month: -2.6 pts.

Since July 29, 2026, December 31 has traded between 15.2% and 71.2%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 27.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202644.0%
Oct 16, 202643.9%
Oct 18, 202649.1%
Oct 19, 202632.6%
Oct 20, 202628.4%
Oct 23, 202628.4%
Oct 24, 202627.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 27.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3127¢27.5%-1.0 pts$7.5K21.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$34.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 726 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Intentional-EngagementNo726$526
Free-Peen-TechnologistYes577$158
0x0742a384…Yes448$123
Wide-Eyed-Category-KilometerYes424$116
Lost-PicketNo288$209
Tricky-SynthesisNo232$168
Unwitting-WheyNo210$152
Distorted-ScooterYes100$27
Evil-RowNo83$60
Canine-SomeoneNo68$49

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $299 at 74.4%BUY No — $195 at 53.5%BUY No — $24 at 52.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 08:49 AM ETYesBUY30.0%$18
Oct 22, 12:10 PM ETNoBUY73.4%$15
Oct 22, 12:10 PM ETNoBUY73.1%$18
Oct 22, 09:54 AM ETNoBUY72.0%$14
Oct 22, 09:54 AM ETNoBUY73.0%$15
Oct 22, 09:54 AM ETNoBUY71.0%$14
Oct 22, 09:18 AM ETNoSELL68.1%$11
Oct 22, 09:15 AM ETNoBUY66.4%$13
Oct 22, 08:49 AM ETNoSELL74.4%$299
Oct 22, 08:49 AM ETYesBUY28.4%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...??

$34.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 27.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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