As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 8.5% in Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...? — $354.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 8.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -9.0 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, December 31 has traded between 6.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 8.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 8.5% |
December 31 is favored at 8.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8¢ | 8.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.6K | 0.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$354.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 305 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Different-Windshield | No | 305 | $280 |
| Green-Recruit | No | 236 | $216 |
| Vast-Myth | Yes | 201 | $17 |
| Honored-Utility | Yes | 114 | $10 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 89 | $8 |
| Demanding-Breakthrough | No | 62 | $57 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 53 | $5 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 46 | $4 |
| Lost-Picket | No | 42 | $39 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 12:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.2% | $23 |
| Oct 22, 03:38 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.4% | $4 |
| Oct 17, 08:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 07:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.6% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 12:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 11:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $9 |
| Oct 06, 03:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $2 |
| Oct 03, 12:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.3% | $48 |
| Sep 30, 04:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 53.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-extradited-to-us-by?via=bro
$354.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 8.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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