As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.0% in Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...? — $174.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.9 pts; past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.5% and 29.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 4.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.0% |
December 31 is favored at 5.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.9 pts | $108.3K | 62.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$174.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,090 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flashy-Label | No | 9,090 | $8.6K |
| Second-Hand-Follower | Yes | 4,993 | $247 |
| Similar-Format | Yes | 4,052 | $201 |
| Trifling-Monkey | No | 2,000 | $1.9K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 1,572 | $1.5K |
| Naive-Illustration-Violation | Yes | 1,411 | $70 |
| Another-Allowance | No | 1,189 | $1.1K |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 1,061 | $53 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 1,000 | $950 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 845 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 09:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.7% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 12:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $14 |
| Oct 19, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $6 |
| Oct 18, 10:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.8% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 09:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $15 |
| Oct 10, 10:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 10, 01:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/situational-awareness-announces-fund-wind-down-byptptpt-20260730181230095?via=bro
$174.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 5.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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