Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.0% in Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...? — $174.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
5%
A 5.0% price implies roughly a 5-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.9 pts7D +1.1 pts30D +0.4 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 30, 2026: 3.5% – 29.0% · Opened at 29.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Finance, Leopold, AI Hedge Fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$174.5K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$3.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 5.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.9 pts; past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.

Since July 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.5% and 29.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 4.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20263.5%
Oct 16, 20263.5%
Oct 18, 20264.4%
Oct 19, 20264.4%
Oct 20, 20264.4%
Oct 22, 20264.1%
Oct 23, 20264.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 5.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 315¢5.0%+0.9 pts$108.3K62.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$174.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,090 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Flashy-LabelNo9,090$8.6K
Second-Hand-FollowerYes4,993$247
Similar-FormatYes4,052$201
Trifling-MonkeyNo2,000$1.9K
Flamboyant-WarmingNo1,572$1.5K
Naive-Illustration-ViolationYes1,411$70
Another-AllowanceNo1,189$1.1K
Unique-PrimaryYes1,061$53
Weird-FreedomNo1,000$950
Charming-GrapeYes845$42

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $21 at 3.0%SELL No — $16 at 96.0%BUY Yes — $15 at 4.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETNoSELL95.2%$5
Oct 22, 09:00 AM ETNoSELL95.7%$12
Oct 21, 12:19 PM ETYesSELL3.5%$5
Oct 21, 02:18 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$5
Oct 21, 12:09 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$14
Oct 19, 02:50 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$6
Oct 18, 10:31 PM ETYesSELL3.8%$1
Oct 17, 09:19 PM ETYesBUY4.0%$15
Oct 10, 10:25 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$10
Oct 10, 01:51 PM ETYesBUY3.2%$2

Related markets

More AI

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028 29.5% · 24H VOL $87.4K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/situational-awareness-announces-fund-wind-down-byptptpt-20260730181230095?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...??

$174.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 5.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.