As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 9.5% in Situational Awareness raises new capital by...? — $87.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 9.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -31.0 pts.
Since August 26, 2026, October 31 has traded between 4.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 9.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% |
October 31 is favored at 9.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $27.7K | 31.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$87.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness or Situational Awareness LP announces, or a consensus of credible reporting confirms, that it has received new outside investor capital by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Capital from existing investors and capital from new investors will both qualify. Capital contributed by Situational Awareness, its principals, or its employees will not qualify. Only capital actually contributed will qualify. Announcements of plans to raise, soft commitments, and signed subscriptions not yet funded will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,538 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snoopy-Silo-Proceedings | Yes | 1,538 | $146 |
| LIBAI | No | 1,045 | $945 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 800 | $724 |
| Reasonable-Paradise | Yes | 793 | $75 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 600 | $57 |
| Sad-Catalysis | No | 500 | $452 |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | No | 345 | $312 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 300 | $271 |
| Somber-Ice | Yes | 250 | $24 |
| Wide-Eyed-Dark | No | 243 | $220 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $22 |
| Oct 22, 12:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $310 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $28 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 19, 01:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 01:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 01:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 01:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $46 |
| Oct 16, 10:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/situational-awareness-raises-new-capital-by-august-31-20260730182353379?via=bro
$87.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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