Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027? at 76.5% in Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? — $89.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $8.2K.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027?
76%
A 76.5% price implies roughly a 76-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −9.0 pts7D +10.0 pts30D −10.0 pts
June 30, 2027?76.5%
March 31, 202751.5%
Bid
76¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 19, 2026: 55.0% – 87.5% · Opened at 86.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
Category
FDA, Tech, Cancer, Moderna, Science, vaccine
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$89.0K
Volume (24h)
$8.2K
Liquidity
$7.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027? — 76.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027?, is priced at 76.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.

Since August 19, 2026, June 30, 2027? has traded between 55.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 85.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202665.5%
Oct 16, 202666.5%
Oct 18, 202666.5%
Oct 19, 202665.5%
Oct 20, 202667.5%
Oct 22, 202685.5%
Oct 23, 202685.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027? is favored at 76.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 2027?76¢76.5%-9.0 pts$70.7K79.4%
March 31, 202752¢51.5%-2.5 pts$18.3K20.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$89.0K has been traded on this event in total, $8.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication. A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof. The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 577 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Skeletal-LiverNo577$136
Wobbly-ChainNo540$127
Simple-ViolationYes443$339
Wan-GymnasticsYes383$293
Charming-GrapeNo374$88
0x14a1783e…Yes372$285
Wide-Eyed-DarkYes365$279
Cool-PattypanNo339$80
Snappy-RoosterYes235$180
Rewarding-PantologistYes227$174

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $1.9K at 83.9%SELL Yes — $298 at 59.6%BUY Yes — $286 at 49.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:12 PM ETYesSELL76.0%$93
Oct 24, 05:12 PM ETYesSELL77.0%$1
Oct 24, 03:18 PM ETYesSELL78.0%$21
Oct 24, 03:18 PM ETYesBUY79.0%$47
Oct 24, 03:18 PM ETYesSELL78.0%$39
Oct 24, 03:18 PM ETYesSELL79.0%$47
Oct 24, 03:17 PM ETYesSELL83.9%$1.9K
Oct 24, 03:17 PM ETNoBUY17.0%$7
Oct 24, 03:17 PM ETNoBUY17.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:57 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$26

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027? at 76.5%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 51.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-bla-submitted-by-june-30-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...??

$89.0K in total volume, with $8.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027?, priced at 76.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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