As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027? at 76.5% in Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? — $89.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027?, is priced at 76.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, June 30, 2027? has traded between 55.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
June 30, 2027? is favored at 76.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027? | 76¢ | 76.5% | -9.0 pts | $70.7K | 79.4% |
| March 31, 2027 | 52¢ | 51.5% | -2.5 pts | $18.3K | 20.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$89.0K has been traded on this event in total, $8.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication. A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof. The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 577 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 577 | $136 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 540 | $127 |
| Simple-Violation | Yes | 443 | $339 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 383 | $293 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 374 | $88 |
| 0x14a1783e… | Yes | 372 | $285 |
| Wide-Eyed-Dark | Yes | 365 | $279 |
| Cool-Pattypan | No | 339 | $80 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 235 | $180 |
| Rewarding-Pantologist | Yes | 227 | $174 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.0% | $93 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 79.0% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.9% | $1.9K |
| Oct 24, 03:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $26 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027? at 76.5%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 51.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-bla-submitted-by-june-30-2027?via=bro
$89.0K in total volume, with $8.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027?, priced at 76.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.