As of October 24, 2026, 09:10 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2028 at 16.0% in Social Security Insolvent by...? — $1.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2028, is priced at 16.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, December 31, 2028 has traded between 13.5% and 30.5%. It opened at 30.5% and last traded at 16.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.0% |
December 31, 2028 is favored at 16.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 16¢ | 16.0% | — | $45 | 4.2% |
| December 31, 2027 | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $1.0K | 95.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Samurai | No | 24 | $21 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 15 | $2 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 10 | $2 |
| Weekly-Rail-Honey | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| Second-Hand-Check | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.4% | $108 |
| Sep 22, 01:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $17 |
| Sep 21, 03:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $44 |
| Sep 21, 12:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $12 |
| Sep 21, 12:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $8 |
| Sep 20, 06:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $47 |
| Sep 20, 06:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $294 |
| Sep 20, 06:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.3% | $77 |
| Aug 22, 12:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 16.0%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/social-security-insolvent-byptptpt-20260609210543644?via=bro
$1.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2028, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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