Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 37.0% in Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...? — $12.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $100.
Leading outcome
November 30
37%
A 37.0% price implies roughly a 37-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +8.5 pts7D −20.5 pts
November 3037.0%
October 3124.0%
Bid
32¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
10¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 29.0% – 65.5% · Opened at 33.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?
Category
seize, strike, red sea, somalia, shipping, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.5K
Volume (24h)
$100
Liquidity
$949
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 37.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 37.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts; past week: -20.5 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 29.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 33.5% and last traded at 36.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202655.5%
Oct 16, 202661.0%
Oct 18, 202659.0%
Oct 19, 202661.5%
Oct 20, 202636.5%
Oct 22, 202629.0%
Oct 23, 202636.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 37.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3037¢37.0%+8.5 pts$1.7K13.9%
October 3124¢24.0%+0.5 pts$9097.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.5K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seize control refers to Somali pirates taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of damage occured. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Somali pirates, or other non-state criminal actors based in or operating from Somalia or Somali territorial waters. The perpetrators need not be individually identified or established to be Somali nationals, and the seizure need not occur in Somali waters. Actions primarily attributed to Somali government or security forces, al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia, or any other terrorist, insurgent, or state actor will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 263 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes263$97
Capital-EndodermNo197$124
Arid-CinemaYes84$31
Menacing-Downgrade-PigletNo84$53
Required-TacticsYes40$15
Giddy-Jealousy-PossessionNo40$25
Oddball-PoisonNo38$24
Fuzzy-DraftYes23$9
Curly-PainYes20$7
Plastic-DuckYes20$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $62 at 65.0%BUY No — $41 at 49.0%BUY No — $31 at 77.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:44 PM ETYesBUY31.0%$6
Oct 24, 05:01 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$8
Oct 24, 05:01 PM ETYesBUY37.0%$15
Oct 24, 06:54 AM ETYesBUY19.0%$4
Oct 23, 03:55 PM ETYesBUY34.0%$7
Oct 22, 12:27 PM ETYesSELL19.0%$4
Oct 22, 10:56 AM ETNoBUY64.0%$13
Oct 22, 07:15 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$5
Oct 22, 07:06 AM ETYesSELL22.0%$4
Oct 22, 06:55 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$12

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 37.0%. Next is October 31 at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/somali-pirates-successfully-seize-a-vessel-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...??

$12.5K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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