As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 37.0% in Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...? — $12.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 37.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts; past week: -20.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 29.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 33.5% and last traded at 36.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 36.5% |
November 30 is favored at 37.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 37¢ | 37.0% | +8.5 pts | $1.7K | 13.9% |
| October 31 | 24¢ | 24.0% | +0.5 pts | $909 | 7.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.5K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seize control refers to Somali pirates taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of damage occured. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Somali pirates, or other non-state criminal actors based in or operating from Somalia or Somali territorial waters. The perpetrators need not be individually identified or established to be Somali nationals, and the seizure need not occur in Somali waters. Actions primarily attributed to Somali government or security forces, al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia, or any other terrorist, insurgent, or state actor will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 263 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 263 | $97 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 197 | $124 |
| Arid-Cinema | Yes | 84 | $31 |
| Menacing-Downgrade-Piglet | No | 84 | $53 |
| Required-Tactics | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Giddy-Jealousy-Possession | No | 40 | $25 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 38 | $24 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | Yes | 23 | $9 |
| Curly-Pain | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 07:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 07:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 06:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 37.0%. Next is October 31 at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/somali-pirates-successfully-seize-a-vessel-byptptpt?via=bro
$12.5K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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