As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No election before 2027 at 95.8% in Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner — $115.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No election before 2027, is priced at 95.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: -2.3 pts.
Since December 16, 2025, No election before 2027 has traded between 23.5% and 99.4%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 95.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.8% |
No election before 2027 is favored at 95.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No election before 2027 | 96¢ | 95.8% | -0.1 pts | $98.6K | 85.6% |
| Waddani | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $6.6K | 5.7% |
| Justice and Welfare (UCID) | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $6.1K | 5.3% |
| Kulmiye | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.9K | 3.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$115.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 31 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,618 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Improbable-Responsibility | Yes | 3,618 | $3.5K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,133 | $90 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 1,325 | $56 |
| Experienced-Beyond | Yes | 727 | $697 |
| Electric-Interpretation | No | 464 | $19 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 427 | $409 |
| Near-Familiar | No | 348 | $15 |
| Cumbersome-Circulation | No | 180 | $8 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 153 | $6 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 116 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 12:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 12:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.4% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 5.1% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 07:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.6% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 03:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.0% | $439 |
| Oct 16, 01:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.7% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.0% | $10 |
| Oct 15, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $10 |
| Oct 15, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No election before 2027 at 95.8%. Next is Waddani at 3.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/somaliland-parliamentary-election-winner?via=bro
$115.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 31 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No election before 2027, priced at 95.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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