As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 68.0% in Sonora Governor Election Winner — $44.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lorenia Valles Sampedro, is priced at 68.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +15.5 pts.
Since August 05, 2026, Lorenia Valles Sampedro has traded between 22.0% and 78.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
Lorenia Valles Sampedro is favored at 68.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenia Valles Sampedro | 68¢ | 68.0% | +0.5 pts | $28.5K | 64.5% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas | 24¢ | 24.1% | +4.0 pts | $2.2K | 5.1% |
| Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez | 7¢ | 6.6% | -0.2 pts | $1.8K | 4.0% |
| Javier Lamarque Cano | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $4.3K | 9.7% |
| Natalia Rivera Grijalva | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $460 | 1.0% |
| Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $514 | 1.2% |
| Ernesto Gándara Camou | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $681 | 1.5% |
| Lilly Téllez García | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $463 | 1.0% |
| Damián Zepeda Vidales | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $408 | 0.9% |
| Manuel Scott Sánchez | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $454 | 1.0% |
| Froylán Gámez Gamboa | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $418 | 0.9% |
| Omar del Valle Colosio | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $482 | 1.1% |
| Rogelio Díaz Brown | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $419 | 0.9% |
| Víctor Hugo Celaya | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $408 | 0.9% |
| Célida Teresa López Cárdenas | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $855 | 1.9% |
| María Dolores del Río Sánchez | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $431 | 1.0% |
| Heriberto Aguilar Castillo | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $407 | 0.9% |
| Guadalupe María Soto | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $450 | 1.0% |
| Patricia Mercado Castro | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $551 | 1.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 66¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 46 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,115 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 3,115 | $2.1K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,535 | $491 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 1,200 | $384 |
| Mad-School | Yes | 540 | $367 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 479 | $153 |
| Quarterly-Compress | Yes | 471 | $320 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 323 | $103 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor | No | 300 | $96 |
| Known-Use | No | 205 | $65 |
| Orderly-Dentist | No | 198 | $64 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 06:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $16 |
| Oct 18, 09:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 13, 07:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 60.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 05:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $62 |
| Oct 11, 07:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.2% | $2 |
| Oct 10, 04:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.7% | $10 |
| Oct 10, 04:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.8% | $15 |
| Oct 08, 06:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.4% | $7 |
| Oct 07, 04:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.4% | $6 |
| Oct 06, 12:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.9% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 68.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sonora-governor-election-winner-20260803170329?via=bro
$44.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 46 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Lorenia Valles Sampedro, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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