As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Change at 64.5% in South African Reserve Bank Decision in November? — $599 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Change, is priced at 64.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: +20.5 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, No Change has traded between 49.0% and 74.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
No Change is favored at 64.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 64¢ | 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $114 | 19.0% |
| 25 bps increase | 36¢ | 35.5% | +25.0 pts | $128 | 21.3% |
| 25 bps decrease | 8¢ | 8.0% | -1.5 pts | $36 | 6.0% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.1 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $322 | 53.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 47¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$599 has been traded on this event in total, $128 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 18, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 19, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 26 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 26 | $9 |
| Outgoing-Age | Yes | 20 | $13 |
| Creepy-Vegetation | Yes | 15 | $10 |
| Mysterious-Offense | No | 10 | $4 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 9 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 8 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 09:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 09:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 04:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 20, 05:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Change at 64.5%. Next is 25 bps increase at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/south-african-reserve-bank-decision-in-november-2026?via=bro
$599 in total volume, with $128 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 18, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar.
No Change, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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