Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Change at 64.5% in South African Reserve Bank Decision in November? — $599 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $128.
Leading outcome
No Change
64%
A 64.5% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −7.0 pts30D +20.5 pts
No Change64.5%
25 bps increase35.5%
Bid
41¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
47¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 49.0% – 74.5% · Opened at 49.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?
Category
Economy, Recurring, Global Rates, South Africa, Interest Rate
Scheduled end
November 18, 2026, 07:00 PM ET
Total volume
$599
Volume (24h)
$128
Liquidity
$696
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No Change — 64.5%
Resolution source
https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No Change, is priced at 64.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: +20.5 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, No Change has traded between 49.0% and 74.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 63.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202674.5%
Oct 18, 202671.5%
Oct 19, 202656.0%
Oct 20, 202662.5%
Oct 22, 202666.0%
Oct 23, 202663.0%
Oct 24, 202663.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No Change is favored at 64.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No Change64¢64.5%+1.0 pts$11419.0%
25 bps increase36¢35.5%+25.0 pts$12821.3%
25 bps decrease8¢8.0%-1.5 pts$366.0%
50+ bps decrease3¢3.4%+0.1 pts$00.0%
50+ bps increase3¢3.4%-0.1 pts$32253.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 47¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$599 has been traded on this event in total, $128 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 18, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 19, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 26 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No26$9
Outgoing-AgeYes20$13
Creepy-VegetationYes15$10
Mysterious-OffenseNo10$4
Prickly-EyrieYes9$6
Belated-GlueNo8$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $22 at 90.0%BUY Yes — $22 at 22.0%BUY No — $19 at 39.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:42 PM ETNoBUY59.0%$6
Oct 24, 04:40 AM ETYesBUY22.0%$22
Oct 23, 09:56 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$8
Oct 21, 09:06 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$5
Oct 21, 09:00 AM ETNoBUY39.0%$19
Oct 21, 04:02 AM ETYesBUY68.0%$14
Oct 20, 05:25 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$7
Oct 20, 05:23 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$2
Oct 20, 04:49 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$7
Oct 20, 02:44 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of South African Reserve Bank Decision in November??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Change at 64.5%. Next is 25 bps increase at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/south-african-reserve-bank-decision-in-november-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on South African Reserve Bank Decision in November??

$599 in total volume, with $128 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does South African Reserve Bank Decision in November? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 18, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar.

What is the most likely outcome of South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?, according to Polymarket traders?

No Change, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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