Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 35.0% in SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___? — $29.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.3K.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
35%
A 35.0% price implies roughly a 35-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.0 pts7D +9.5 pts
December 31, 202735.0%
June 30, 202715.0%
Bid
34¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 09, 2026: 22.0% – 45.0% · Opened at 45.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?
Category
SPCX, Tech, SpaceX, starlink, Elon Musk
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$29.6K
Volume (24h)
$1.3K
Liquidity
$11.0K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 35.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 35.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +9.5 pts.

Since October 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 22.0% and 45.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 35.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202625.5%
Oct 18, 202623.5%
Oct 19, 202624.5%
Oct 20, 202624.0%
Oct 22, 202626.5%
Oct 23, 202638.5%
Oct 24, 202635.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 35.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202735¢35.0%-4.0 pts$14.3K48.3%
June 30, 202715¢15.0%-3.0 pts$15.3K51.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$29.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX makes a mobile phone plan available for purchase in the United States between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “SpaceX” refers to the company known as SpaceX at market creation. Changes to the names or branding of SpaceX, its subsidiaries, acquired carriers, or their mobile services will not affect resolution. A mobile phone plan means a mobile service sold directly by SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls that gives the subscriber a U.S. phone number with voice calls, text messaging, and mobile data. Voice calls and text messaging available only through third-party internet applications will not satisfy these requirements. A qualifying plan may use SpaceX’s own network, another carrier’s network, or a combination of satellite and terrestrial networks. Plans offered by a carrier that SpaceX acquires a controlling interest in will count once the acquisition is completed and the plan satisfies all other requirements of these rules. Satellite services sold as an add-on to another carrier's plan, such as T-Mobile's T-Satellite, will not count. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 474 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Authorized-MandolinNo474$308
Charming-GrapeNo453$295
Hideous-RacerYes410$143
Writhing-RoundYes300$105
Unlined-PoleNo298$194
Belated-GlueNo247$160
Modern-MaliceYes201$70
Blind-CockpitYes106$37
Rotten-AtheistNo104$68
0x0e3daaf1…Yes100$35

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $573 at 36.8%SELL No — $134 at 81.0%SELL Yes — $114 at 38.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:40 PM ETYesSELL34.0%$3
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL85.0%$17
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETYesSELL35.0%$84
Oct 24, 04:26 PM ETYesSELL36.0%$43
Oct 24, 01:15 PM ETYesSELL36.0%$11
Oct 24, 01:15 PM ETYesSELL37.0%$7
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETYesSELL36.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY84.0%$17
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$83

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 35.0%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-becomes-a-us-mobile-carrier-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___??

$29.6K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 35.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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