As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.0% in SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? — $30.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since June 09, 2026, No has traded between 89.5% and 99.8%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
No is favored at 98.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.0% | — | $30.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $30.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.7K has been traded on this event in total, $89 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Resolution source: https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,080 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| x26 | No | 3,080 | $3.0K |
| Imaginative-River | No | 1,986 | $1.9K |
| Awful-Muscat | Yes | 1,898 | $37 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 1,577 | $1.5K |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 1,067 | $21 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 1,015 | $996 |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 982 | $19 |
| Rewarding-Max | Yes | 948 | $18 |
| Pointed-Chap | No | 611 | $599 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 492 | $482 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 07:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 06:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 10:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 11:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 10:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 10:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $7 |
| Oct 10, 11:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.0%. Next is Yes at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697?via=bro
$30.7K in total volume, with $89 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release.
No, priced at 98.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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