As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30, 2026 at 75.0% in SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? — $42.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, 2026, is priced at 75.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, November 30, 2026 has traded between 67.5% and 90.0%. It opened at 74.0% and last traded at 75.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 75.0% |
November 30, 2026 is favored at 75.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30, 2026 | 75¢ | 75.0% | +9.5 pts | $8.6K | 20.1% |
| Chopsticks catch Starship? | 68¢ | 68.5% | +1.5 pts | $6.8K | 15.8% |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 66¢ | 66.0% | -2.0 pts | $5.2K | 12.0% |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 40¢ | 39.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.6K | 6.1% |
| Successful splash down? | 24¢ | 24.5% | — | $853 | 2.0% |
| November 15, 2026 | 22¢ | 21.5% | +8.0 pts | $4.6K | 10.7% |
| October 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.4 pts | $14.2K | 33.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,212 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devoted-Route | No | 2,212 | $553 |
| Rich-Game | Yes | 1,382 | $1.0K |
| Warm-Habitat | Yes | 1,000 | $750 |
| Adept-Loyalty | No | 840 | $210 |
| Sudden-Automaton-Chronicle | No | 721 | $180 |
| 0x4e84ce15… | No | 696 | $174 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | Yes | 627 | $470 |
| Lazy-Judgment | Yes | 420 | $315 |
| Scared-Administrator | Yes | 400 | $300 |
| Shiny-Tablecloth | Yes | 300 | $225 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.4% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.4% | $1.0K |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30, 2026 at 75.0%. Next is Chopsticks catch Starship? at 68.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15?via=bro
$42.8K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, 2026, priced at 75.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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