As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 86.5% in SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? — $11.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +9.5 pts.
Since June 17, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 45.0% and 94.3%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.8% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.5% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 86¢ | 86.5% | — | $629 | 5.6% |
| December 31, 2026 | 26¢ | 26.0% | +2.5 pts | $8.8K | 78.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.2K has been traded on this event in total, $60 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 394 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Better-Shaker | Yes | 394 | $341 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen | No | 222 | $30 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 114 | $15 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 52 | $7 |
| Legitimate-Tornado | Yes | 44 | $38 |
| Joyous-Counterpart | No | 33 | $4 |
| Constant-Snowplow | No | 20 | $3 |
| Academic-Forecast | Yes | 19 | $16 |
| Weak-Customer-Leg | Yes | 12 | $10 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 12 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 11:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 06:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 04:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $8 |
| Oct 18, 07:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $8 |
| Oct 13, 05:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $4 |
| Oct 13, 05:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 12:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $36 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 86.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-florida-launch-by-20260617154757803?via=bro
$11.2K in total volume, with $60 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX.
June 30, 2027, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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