Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price PP at 65.5% in Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner — $4.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.1K.
Leading outcome
PP
66%
A 65.5% price implies roughly a 66-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +8.0 pts
PP65.5%
Party A50.0%
Bid
60¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
11¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner
Category
Spain, World, Politics, Elections, Spain Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Scheduled end
November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.1K
Volume (24h)
$1.1K
Liquidity
$34.0K
Markets
36
Leading outcome
PP — 65.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, PP, is priced at 65.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.0 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

PP is favored at 65.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
PP66¢65.5%+8.0 pts$77219.0%
Party A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party G50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party I50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party K50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party L50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party M50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AA50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AB50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AC50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AD50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
PSOE26¢26.0%+3.5 pts$3187.8%
Vox6¢5.5%-6.5 pts$1.1K27.0%
Broad Front (FA)1¢0.9%-2.3 pts$63215.6%
Podemos0¢0.1%-2.8 pts$1.2K30.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 36 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Guadalajara as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Guadalajara, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Guadalajara, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 193 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo193$67
Muted-PrimaryYes150$98
0xa5ef39c3…No109$38
Unselfish-Mineral-SundayYes84$55
Weepy-Pence-LoopholeYes50$33
Direct-ChainstayNo44$15
Large-OctetYes35$23
Zigzag-Conspirator-GleeYes20$13
Evil-RowYes6$4
Meager-ChiveYes5$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $535 at 84.8%BUY No — $445 at 89.0%BUY No — $193 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:00 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:42 AM ETNoBUY34.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:42 AM ETNoBUY34.0%$16
Oct 24, 07:57 AM ETYesSELL0.1%$0
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY99.9%$20
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY99.9%$20
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY92.0%$9
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY91.0%$18
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY91.2%$18
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY72.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is PP at 65.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-guadalajara-winner?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner?

$4.1K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 36 markets.

When does Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Spain General Election: Guadalajara Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

PP, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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