As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 90.8% in SPLC found guilty in 2026? — $1.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 90.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: -4.5 pts; past month: +1.3 pts.
Since April 22, 2026, No has traded between 31.0% and 97.0%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 90.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.8% |
No is favored at 90.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 91¢ | 90.8% | +0.2 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 9¢ | 9.2% | -0.2 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On April 21, 2026, the United States Department of Justice announced an indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) including charges of wire fraud and bank fraud, among others (see: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the SPLC is found guilty of any charges in this case by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first official judgment rendered in this case that results in a judgment of guilt, or finally disposes of the charges without a judgment of guilt. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 234 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 234 | $212 |
| Informal-Crystallography | Yes | 218 | $20 |
| Thorough-Dirndl | No | 204 | $186 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 106 | $10 |
| Solid-Cooperation | No | 101 | $92 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 71 | $7 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 60 | $5 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 40 | $4 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 30 | $3 |
| Ragged-Dose | No | 18 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 09:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Sep 13, 11:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $2 |
| Sep 10, 05:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.8% | $5 |
| Sep 06, 10:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Sep 06, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.2% | $2 |
| Sep 02, 04:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $7 |
| Sep 02, 04:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $3 |
| Sep 02, 04:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $41 |
| Sep 02, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $49 |
| Sep 02, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.3% | $93 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 90.8%. Next is Yes at 9.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/splc-found-guilty-in-2026?via=bro
$1.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants.
No, priced at 90.8% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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