As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $7,400 at 66.0% in What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December? — $432.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $7,400, is priced at 66.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.0 pts; past week: +4.5 pts; past month: +20.0 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, ↓ $7,400 has traded between 30.5% and 74.0%. It opened at 63.0% and last traded at 66.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 66.0% |
↓ $7,400 is favored at 66.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $7,400 | 66¢ | 66.0% | +9.0 pts | $846 | 0.2% |
| ↑ $8,000 | 44¢ | 43.5% | -4.5 pts | $908 | 0.2% |
| ↓ $7,000 | 32¢ | 32.0% | — | $3.2K | 0.7% |
| ↓ $7,200 | 31¢ | 31.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.0K | 0.5% |
| ↑ $8,200 | 21¢ | 21.0% | -11.5 pts | $27.2K | 6.3% |
| ↓ $6,000 | 12¢ | 12.0% | +0.5 pts | $6.5K | 1.5% |
| ↓ $6,200 | 10¢ | 10.2% | -1.8 pts | $74.7K | 17.3% |
| ↑ $8,600 | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $41.5K | 9.6% |
| ↓ $5,800 | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.2 pts | $50.8K | 11.7% |
| ↑ $9,000 | 3¢ | 3.4% | -0.8 pts | $155 | 0.0% |
| ↓ $5,200 | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.7 pts | $81.6K | 18.9% |
| ↓ $4,500 | 2¢ | 2.2% | +0.5 pts | $67.5K | 15.6% |
| ↑ $9,300 | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $15.3K | 3.5% |
| ↑ $10,000 | 1¢ | 1.3% | — | $467 | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 38¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$432.8K has been traded on this event in total, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 240 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greedy-Neighbourhood | Yes | 240 | $158 |
| Remote-Demur | No | 218 | $74 |
| Sleepy-Council | No | 214 | $73 |
| Lumbering-Rabbi | Yes | 190 | $125 |
| Petty-Archaeology | Yes | 142 | $94 |
| Jaded-Mail | No | 137 | $47 |
| Unripe-Instruction | No | 68 | $23 |
| Utilized-Discovery | Yes | 32 | $21 |
| Concerned-Wing | Yes | 24 | $16 |
| Pastel-Inflation | Yes | 20 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $972 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $466 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $486 |
| Oct 24, 03:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.5% | $66 |
| Oct 23, 05:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.1% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $7,400 at 66.0%. Next is ↑ $8,000 at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spx-hit-dec-2026?via=bro
$432.8K in total volume, with $3.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
↓ $7,400, priced at 66.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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