Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $735 at 99.8% in S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26? — $1.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $671.
Leading outcome
$735
100%
A 99.8% price implies roughly a 100-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.5 pts
$73599.8%
$74098.8%
Bid
100¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
0¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 96.9% – 99.5% · Opened at 96.9%

Market facts

Event data
Event
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?
Category
Finance, Equities, Stocks, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Hide From New, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Equity Daily Pyth, SPY
Scheduled end
October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET
Total volume
$1.1K
Volume (24h)
$671
Liquidity
$8.3K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
$735 — 99.8%
Resolution source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, $735, is priced at 99.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, $735 has traded between 96.9% and 99.5%. It opened at 96.9% and last traded at 99.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

$735 is favored at 99.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
$735100¢99.8%+3.5 pts$28926.1%
$74099¢98.8%-0.1 pts$625.6%
$74598¢97.9%+2.0 pts$615.5%
$75090¢90.3%-0.7 pts$635.7%
$75584¢84.5%+3.5 pts$13011.7%
$76052¢52.5%+0.5 pts$25823.3%
$76520¢20.0%-4.0 pts$18516.7%
$7857¢7.0%—$201.8%
$7705¢5.4%-1.8 pts$00.0%
$7755¢5.0%-0.5 pts$00.0%
$7804¢4.5%-0.5 pts$403.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 100¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.1K has been traded on this event in total, $671 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 214 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Perfect-ExternalYes214$213
Thorough-OperationNo200$0
Sour-AstrakhanYes20$20
Voluminous-LavaNo20$0
Plastic-DuckNo20$0
Wretched-Myth-DownfallNo20$0
Afraid-CubYes18$18
Different-Hygienic-ElverYes16$16
0x466a079c…No16$0
Square-CrystalYes16$15

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $100 at 93.3%BUY Yes — $100 at 93.8%BUY Yes — $26 at 52.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:32 PM ETYesBUY50.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:03 PM ETYesBUY93.8%$100
Oct 24, 04:03 PM ETYesBUY93.3%$100
Oct 24, 04:02 PM ETYesSELL14.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:56 PM ETYesBUY93.3%$14
Oct 24, 02:56 PM ETYesBUY93.3%$17
Oct 24, 02:56 PM ETNoBUY6.7%$0
Oct 24, 12:28 PM ETNoSELL59.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:19 PM ETYesBUY17.2%$3
Oct 24, 11:45 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$9

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is $735 at 99.8%. Next is $740 at 98.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spy-closes-above-on-october-26-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26??

$1.1K in total volume, with $671 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.

What is the most likely outcome of S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 26?, according to Polymarket traders?

$735, priced at 99.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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