Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Down at 67.0% in SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26? — $208 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $172.
Leading outcome
Down
67%
A 67.0% price implies roughly a 67-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −18.5 pts
Down67.0%
Up33.0%
Bid
4¢
Ask
62¢
Spread
58¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?
Category
Finance, Equities, Stocks, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Hide From New, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Equity Daily Pyth, SPY, S&P 500
Scheduled end
October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET
Total volume
$208
Volume (24h)
$172
Liquidity
$139
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Down — 67.0%
Resolution source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Down, is priced at 67.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.5 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Down is favored at 67.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Down67¢67.0%+18.5 pts$208100.0%
Up33¢33.0%-18.5 pts$208100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 58¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 62¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$208 has been traded on this event in total, $172 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 148 shares of Down.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Unpleasant-DistinctionDown148$99
Different-Hygienic-ElverUp69$23
Green-Grandparent-OrdinationUp60$20
These-Latency-PerspectiveUp20$7
Damaged-ExtentDown19$13
Steep-InhibitorUp15$5
Frail-ItemUp5$2
Worthless-BankDown5$3
Winged-ResearcherUp3$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Up — $19 at 40.0%BUY Down — $10 at 52.0%BUY Up — $10 at 53.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:35 PM ETDownBUY45.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:35 PM ETDownBUY45.0%$4
Oct 24, 03:19 PM ETDownBUY52.0%$10
Oct 24, 11:54 AM ETUpBUY48.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:45 AM ETUpBUY39.0%$6
Oct 24, 11:45 AM ETUpBUY39.9%$6
Oct 24, 11:21 AM ETUpBUY40.0%$19
Oct 24, 11:21 AM ETUpBUY39.1%$7
Oct 24, 11:14 AM ETUpBUY44.0%$7
Oct 24, 11:14 AM ETUpBUY44.9%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Down at 67.0%. Next is Up at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spy-up-or-down-on-october-26-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26??

$208 in total volume, with $172 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.

What is the most likely outcome of SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?, according to Polymarket traders?

Down, priced at 67.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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