As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Morena at 93.0% in State of Mexico Congress Election Winner — $11.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Morena, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +14.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, Morena has traded between 59.0% and 94.0%. It opened at 70.0% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
Morena is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morena | 93¢ | 93.0% | — | $8.0K | 67.0% |
| Party A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AA | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AB | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AC | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party AD | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| PVEM | 4¢ | 4.2% | -2.5 pts | $1.7K | 14.7% |
| MC | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $582 | 4.9% |
| PAN | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $498 | 4.2% |
| PRI | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.5 pts | $665 | 5.6% |
| PT | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $439 | 3.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections to elect the 75 members of the Congress of the State of Mexico are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Mexico as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral del Estado de México. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,379 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 1,379 | $1.3K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 1,200 | $84 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 1,192 | $1.1K |
| Belated-Glue | No | 871 | $61 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 609 | $43 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 342 | $319 |
| Honest-Resume | Yes | 180 | $167 |
| 0xf040b361… | Yes | 137 | $127 |
| Known-Use | No | 127 | $9 |
| Creamy-Geology | No | 100 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $92 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.1% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 8.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 8.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.4% | $25 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.7% | $58 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $63 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Morena at 93.0%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/state-of-mexico-congress-election-winner?via=bro
$11.9K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Morena, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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