As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? — $984.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -8.5 pts.
Since August 11, 2026, No has traded between 69.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | — | $984.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $984.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$984.2K has been traded on this event in total, $8.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 115,881 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impassioned-Watch | No | 115,881 | $109.5K |
| Shiny-Mark | Yes | 77,172 | $4.2K |
| Foolish-Propane | Yes | 71,109 | $3.9K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 60,005 | $3.3K |
| Far-Carbon | No | 22,500 | $21.3K |
| Lustrous-Webpage | No | 20,000 | $18.9K |
| Optimal-Pecan | No | 20,000 | $18.9K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 19,492 | $18.4K |
| Icy-Plier-Armrest | No | 15,000 | $14.2K |
| Whimsical-Pawnshop | No | 12,842 | $12.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 03:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $228 |
| Oct 24, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $146 |
| Oct 24, 09:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765?via=bro
$984.2K in total volume, with $8.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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