Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? — $984.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $8.6K.
Leading outcome
No
94%
A 94.5% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +1.0 pts30D −8.5 pts
No94.5%
Yes5.5%
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since August 11, 2026: 69.5% – 95.5% · Opened at 69.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Category
Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Politics, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$984.2K
Volume (24h)
$8.6K
Liquidity
$214.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.5%
Resolution source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -8.5 pts.

Since August 11, 2026, No has traded between 69.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 94.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202695.5%
Oct 16, 202695.5%
Oct 18, 202694.5%
Oct 19, 202693.5%
Oct 20, 202694.5%
Oct 23, 202694.5%
Oct 24, 202694.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No94¢94.5%—$984.2K100.0%
Yes6¢5.5%—$984.2K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$984.2K has been traded on this event in total, $8.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 115,881 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impassioned-WatchNo115,881$109.5K
Shiny-MarkYes77,172$4.2K
Foolish-PropaneYes71,109$3.9K
Near-FamiliarYes60,005$3.3K
Far-CarbonNo22,500$21.3K
Lustrous-WebpageNo20,000$18.9K
Optimal-PecanNo20,000$18.9K
Prickly-EyrieNo19,492$18.4K
Icy-Plier-ArmrestNo15,000$14.2K
Whimsical-PawnshopNo12,842$12.1K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $2.2K at 95.0%BUY No — $672 at 95.0%BUY No — $285 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:59 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$0
Oct 24, 03:36 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$19
Oct 24, 03:00 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$228
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:42 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:16 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$14
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$0
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$146
Oct 24, 09:16 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30??

$984.2K in total volume, with $8.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.

What is the most likely outcome of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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