As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4B–5B at 32.0% in Strava IPO Closing Market Cap — $91.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4B–5B, is priced at 32.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.0 pts; past week: +7.5 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.
Since January 14, 2026, 4B–5B has traded between 4.5% and 42.0%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 22.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 22.0% |
4B–5B is favored at 32.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4B–5B | 32¢ | 32.0% | +10.0 pts | $1.7K | 1.8% |
| 2B–3B | 32¢ | 31.5% | +1.0 pts | $54.6K | 59.6% |
| 7B–10B | 26¢ | 26.4% | -0.8 pts | $1.3K | 1.4% |
| 5B–7B | 18¢ | 18.4% | -1.8 pts | $1.1K | 1.2% |
| <2B | 10¢ | 9.8% | -0.1 pts | $992 | 1.1% |
| No IPO before 2028 | 8¢ | 7.8% | +0.1 pts | $789 | 0.9% |
| 3B–4B | 7¢ | 7.0% | -1.0 pts | $28.0K | 30.6% |
| 10B–15B | 5¢ | 5.2% | -0.4 pts | $1.8K | 1.9% |
| 15B+ | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $1.5K | 1.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 36¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$91.6K has been traded on this event in total, $17 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 784 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 784 | $533 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 285 | $91 |
| Fruitful-Heroine | Yes | 75 | $24 |
| Secondary-Lobotomy | Yes | 66 | $21 |
| Wild-Creditor | Yes | 50 | $16 |
| Broken-Idea | Yes | 41 | $13 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $13 |
| Blind-Leaf | Yes | 38 | $12 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 37 | $12 |
| True-Child-Bottling | Yes | 30 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.5% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 02:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $1 |
| Sep 30, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Sep 30, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.8% | $113 |
| Sep 18, 11:38 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $2 |
| Sep 18, 11:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $6 |
| Sep 17, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Sep 17, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $0 |
| Sep 17, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $0 |
| Sep 17, 02:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4B–5B at 32.0%. Next is 2B–3B at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/strava-ipo-closing-market-cap?via=bro
$91.6K in total volume, with $17 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
4B–5B, priced at 32.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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