As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 11.0% in Sudan civil war ceasefire by...? — $119.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 11.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since December 22, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 7.0% and 60.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 9.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 11.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 11¢ | 11.0% | +3.0 pts | $15.1K | 12.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$119.6K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 115 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stained-Defendant-Industrialization | No | 115 | $103 |
| Loathsome-Ox | Yes | 79 | $9 |
| Intent-Attitude | No | 63 | $56 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 54 | $6 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 54 | $48 |
| Misty-Stimulus | No | 45 | $40 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 39 | $4 |
| Cold-Statue | No | 36 | $32 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet | Yes | 35 | $4 |
| Required-Saffron | No | 32 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 10:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 12:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 01:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 01:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 11, 07:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $5 |
| Oct 05, 03:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $11 |
| Oct 03, 12:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 02, 03:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 02:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by?via=bro
$119.6K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 11.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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