Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 11.0% in Sudan civil war ceasefire by...? — $119.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $7.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026
11%
A 11.0% price implies roughly a 11-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.0 pts30D +3.5 pts
Bid
6¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
10¢
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Range since December 22, 2025: 7.0% – 60.5% · Opened at 56.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Politics, World, Sudan
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$119.6K
Volume (24h)
$7
Liquidity
$264
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026 — 11.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 11.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.

Since December 22, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 7.0% and 60.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 9.0%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202611.5%
Oct 13, 202613.0%
Oct 15, 202611.5%
Oct 16, 202611.0%
Oct 18, 202611.0%
Oct 19, 20269.0%
Oct 20, 20269.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2026 is favored at 11.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202611¢11.0%+3.0 pts$15.1K12.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$119.6K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 115 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Stained-Defendant-IndustrializationNo115$103
Loathsome-OxYes79$9
Intent-AttitudeNo63$56
Pointed-WildernessYes54$6
bakayo33 - 9934No54$48
Misty-StimulusNo45$40
Belated-GlueYes39$4
Cold-StatueNo36$32
Firsthand-EagletYes35$4
Required-SaffronNo32$29

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $49 at 11.0%BUY Yes — $48 at 9.0%BUY Yes — $48 at 9.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:42 AM ETNoSELL90.0%$6
Oct 20, 10:47 PM ETNoBUY92.3%$4
Oct 18, 12:27 AM ETNoBUY92.0%$1
Oct 12, 01:58 AM ETYesSELL14.0%$3
Oct 12, 01:57 AM ETNoBUY92.0%$18
Oct 11, 07:47 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$5
Oct 05, 03:36 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$11
Oct 03, 12:50 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$1
Oct 02, 03:58 PM ETYesBUY10.0%$1
Sep 27, 02:22 AM ETNoBUY94.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Sudan civil war ceasefire by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Sudan civil war ceasefire by...??

$119.6K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Sudan civil war ceasefire by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2026, priced at 11.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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