As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.0% in Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? — $11.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 89.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
No is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.0% | +0.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $85 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Mary Peltola (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Dan Sullivan (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) or Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 528 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impossible-Reject | No | 528 | $507 |
| Little-Gold | No | 440 | $422 |
| 0x91c363ac… | No | 356 | $342 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 243 | $10 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $10 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 227 | $9 |
| Experienced-Smell-Railroad | No | 130 | $125 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 100 | $4 |
| Dense-Whip | Yes | 93 | $4 |
| Impure-Township | Yes | 86 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 04:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 04:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 04:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 04:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.0%. Next is Yes at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sullivan-flips-peltola-for-alaska-senate-by-november-2?via=bro
$11.7K in total volume, with $85 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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