As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? — $27.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since December 16, 2025, No has traded between 33.5% and 91.0%. It opened at 72.0% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | +0.5 pts | $27.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $27.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,410 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 2,410 | $2.1K |
| Itsjoeco | Yes | 1,870 | $252 |
| Flashy-Label | No | 1,866 | $1.6K |
| Modern-Malice | Yes | 1,674 | $226 |
| Hard-To-Find-Economics | No | 1,083 | $936 |
| Brown-Tragedy | Yes | 1,011 | $137 |
| Entire-Trafficker | Yes | 892 | $120 |
| Trained-Sniffle | No | 775 | $670 |
| Pitiful-Patience | Yes | 751 | $101 |
| Evil-Row | No | 583 | $504 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 12:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.1% | $235 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.9% | $18 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $8 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $9 |
| Oct 14, 08:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $9 |
| Oct 14, 08:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/supreme-court-vacancy-in-2026?via=bro
$27.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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