As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $50M at 70.5% in Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $112.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $50M, is priced at 70.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -13.5 pts; past month: +8.0 pts.
Since March 08, 2026, $50M has traded between 38.5% and 86.0%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 70.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 70.5% |
$50M is favored at 70.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 70¢ | 70.5% | -1.0 pts | $95.1K | 84.4% |
| $100M | 60¢ | 59.5% | +1.0 pts | $15.5K | 13.7% |
| $200M | 59¢ | 59.0% | — | $103 | 0.1% |
| $300M | 55¢ | 55.0% | -0.5 pts | $824 | 0.7% |
| $500M | 44¢ | 44.5% | -6.0 pts | $1.2K | 1.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$112.7K has been traded on this event in total, $30 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://x.com/SurfAI
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,381 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-Milestone | No | 2,381 | $702 |
| Indolent-Reward | Yes | 2,224 | $1.6K |
| 0xd4aa6f8e… | No | 555 | $164 |
| Flimsy-Fishery | Yes | 467 | $329 |
| Satisfied-Intentionality | No | 446 | $132 |
| Authentic-Switchboard | Yes | 371 | $262 |
| Incredible-Pickup | No | 348 | $103 |
| Fruitful-Ectoderm | No | 245 | $72 |
| Jam-Packed-Peace | No | 200 | $59 |
| Subdued-Revenant | No | 196 | $58 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 10:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 57.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 05:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 05:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.9% | $44 |
| Oct 23, 03:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 19.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 03:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $36 |
| Oct 22, 04:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 18.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $50M at 70.5%. Next is $100M at 59.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch?via=bro
$112.7K in total volume, with $30 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/SurfAI.
$50M, priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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