As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 65.5% in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — $1.58M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 65.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 36.5% and 70.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 65.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 65.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 66¢ | 65.5% | — | $67.4K | 4.3% |
| June 30, 2027 | 58¢ | 58.5% | — | $73.2K | 4.6% |
| February 28, 2027 | 30¢ | 30.0% | -4.5 pts | $34.5K | 2.2% |
| January 31, 2027 | 23¢ | 23.0% | -6.5 pts | $58.6K | 3.7% |
| December 31, 2026 | 16¢ | 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $322.0K | 20.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.58M has been traded on this event in total, $13.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,116 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajar-Sportsman | No | 6,116 | $2.1K |
| Trained-Sniffle | Yes | 4,738 | $3.1K |
| Indelible-Dhow | No | 4,080 | $1.4K |
| Gregarious-Eel | No | 3,557 | $1.2K |
| Well-Informed-Ischemia | Yes | 3,405 | $2.2K |
| Spotted-Skiing | No | 2,869 | $990 |
| Hard-Boat | Yes | 2,847 | $1.9K |
| Short-Term-Criminal | Yes | 2,370 | $1.6K |
| Utilized-Outback | No | 2,307 | $796 |
| 0x91c363ac… | Yes | 2,103 | $1.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 05:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 03:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $66 |
| Oct 24, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.0% | $59 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 09:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 65.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 58.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30?via=bro
$1.58M in total volume, with $13.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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