As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 9.5% in Tesla Roadster delivered by...? — $9.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 9.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -26.0 pts.
Since September 15, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 9.0% and 46.5%. It opened at 38.5% and last traded at 9.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 9.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $5.5K | 56.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.3 pts | $4.3K | 43.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 902 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tepid-Catsup | No | 902 | $816 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 740 | $669 |
| Definitive-Anticodon | Yes | 507 | $48 |
| 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda | Yes | 421 | $40 |
| Superb-Moody | Yes | 171 | $16 |
| Minor-Pilot | Yes | 108 | $10 |
| Likable-Chair | Yes | 101 | $10 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 96 | $9 |
| Required-Horn | No | 87 | $79 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 79 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 02:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 09:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 09:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 01:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $6 |
| Oct 18, 09:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 05:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 05:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 04:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 12:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 9.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 2.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-roadster-delivered-byptptpt?via=bro
$9.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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