As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ken Paxton (R) at 56.0% in Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner — $12.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Ken Paxton (R), is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, Ken Paxton (R) has traded between 19.5% and 61.0%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 56.0% |
Ken Paxton (R) is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton (R) | 56¢ | 56.0% | -0.5 pts | $4.9K | 38.3% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| James Talarico (D) | 44¢ | 44.5% | +1.5 pts | $7.9K | 61.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 58¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $944 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Denton County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Denton County.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,329 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,329 | $585 |
| Expert-Bonfire | Yes | 470 | $263 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | Yes | 332 | $186 |
| Liquid-Argument | Yes | 272 | $152 |
| Grumpy-Urn | Yes | 207 | $116 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 197 | $110 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 70 | $31 |
| Known-Use | No | 66 | $29 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 60 | $26 |
| Dismal-Moustache | Yes | 57 | $32 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.1% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 03:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.0% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ken Paxton (R) at 56.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-denton-county-winner?via=bro
$12.9K in total volume, with $944 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Ken Paxton (R), priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.