Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ken Paxton (R) at 56.0% in Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner — $12.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $944.
Leading outcome
Ken Paxton (R)
56%
A 56.0% price implies roughly a 56-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +3.5 pts30D −5.0 pts
Ken Paxton (R)56.0%
Person A50.0%
Bid
54¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 19.5% – 61.0% · Opened at 41.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner
Category
Midterms, Politics, Elections, US Election, Texas Midterm, Senate Elections
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.9K
Volume (24h)
$944
Liquidity
$50.6K
Markets
13
Leading outcome
Ken Paxton (R) — 56.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Ken Paxton (R), is priced at 56.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, Ken Paxton (R) has traded between 19.5% and 61.0%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 56.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202652.5%
Oct 18, 202643.0%
Oct 19, 202647.0%
Oct 20, 202644.0%
Oct 22, 202656.0%
Oct 23, 202656.0%
Oct 24, 202656.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Ken Paxton (R) is favored at 56.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Ken Paxton (R)56¢56.0%-0.5 pts$4.9K38.3%
Person A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person G50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person I50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
James Talarico (D)44¢44.5%+1.5 pts$7.9K61.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 58¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $944 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Denton County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Denton County.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,329 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,329$585
Expert-BonfireYes470$263
Partial-AdrenalinYes332$186
Liquid-ArgumentYes272$152
Grumpy-UrnYes207$116
Expensive-Arrow-NightclubYes197$110
Belated-GlueNo70$31
Known-UseNo66$29
Gleaming-HandlebarNo60$26
Dismal-MoustacheYes57$32

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $97 at 45.6%BUY Yes — $55 at 55.0%BUY No — $36 at 59.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:19 PM ETYesBUY46.1%$19
Oct 24, 04:47 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$25
Oct 24, 03:39 PM ETNoBUY56.0%$19
Oct 24, 03:23 PM ETYesBUY55.0%$7
Oct 24, 03:23 PM ETYesBUY54.0%$7
Oct 24, 02:31 PM ETYesSELL54.0%$11
Oct 24, 02:31 PM ETNoBUY45.0%$29
Oct 24, 02:31 PM ETNoBUY46.0%$9
Oct 24, 01:10 AM ETYesBUY55.0%$55
Oct 24, 12:56 AM ETNoSELL55.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ken Paxton (R) at 56.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-denton-county-winner?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner?

$12.9K in total volume, with $944 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.

When does Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Ken Paxton (R), priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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