As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Talarico at 96.9% in Texas Senate favorite on November 2? — $7.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Talarico, is priced at 96.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +8.4 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, Talarico has traded between 76.5% and 97.9%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 96.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.9% |
Talarico is favored at 96.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talarico | 97¢ | 96.9% | — | $7.3K | 100.0% |
| Paxton | 3¢ | 3.1% | — | $7.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Talarico" if the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Paxton" if the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. If the "James Talarico (D)" option's and the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 973 shares of Talarico.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flippant-Speech | Talarico | 973 | $943 |
| Piercing-Formation | Talarico | 640 | $620 |
| Belated-Glue | Paxton | 441 | $14 |
| Trivial-Newsstand | Paxton | 392 | $12 |
| Grim-Garage | Paxton | 204 | $6 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Paxton | 150 | $5 |
| Unlined-Pole | Paxton | 147 | $5 |
| Hideous-Racer | Paxton | 94 | $3 |
| Elated-Conspirator-Copying | Paxton | 68 | $2 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Talarico | 67 | $65 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:45 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 10:45 PM ET | Talarico | SELL | 96.9% | $263 |
| Oct 21, 03:29 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 09:34 AM ET | Paxton | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 08:33 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:07 PM ET | Talarico | SELL | 96.9% | $65 |
| Oct 20, 06:13 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 06:13 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 2.8% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 06:13 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 4.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 05:45 PM ET | Paxton | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Talarico at 96.9%. Next is Paxton at 3.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-favorite-on-november-2?via=bro
$7.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:00 PM ET.
Talarico, priced at 96.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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