The Game Awards: Best Independent Game Odds

Market facts

Event data

Event: The Game Awards: Best Independent Game
Category: Games, Awards, Culture, Game Awards, video games
Scheduled end: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume: $73.0K
Volume (24h): $332
Liquidity: $16.8K
Markets: 51
Leading outcome: Game A — 50.0%
Resolution source: https://thegameawards.com/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Game A, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Game A is favored at 50.0%.

Outcome	Price	Implied probability	24h change	Volume	Volume share
Game A	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game B	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game C	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game D	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game E	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game F	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game G	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game H	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game I	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game J	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game K	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game L	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game M	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game N	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game O	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game P	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game Q	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game R	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game S	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game T	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game U	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game V	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game W	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game X	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game Y	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Game Z	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Other	50¢	50.0%	+0.0 pts	$0	0.0%
Big Walk	47¢	47.1%	+0.6 pts	$11.5K	15.8%
Mina the Hollower	32¢	32.5%	+1.5 pts	$14.0K	19.2%
Mewgenics	16¢	15.5%	+2.0 pts	$9.0K	12.4%
Cairn	5¢	5.5%	-4.8 pts	$2.7K	3.7%
Mixtape	4¢	4.4%	+0.8 pts	$1.3K	1.8%
Order of the Sinking Star	3¢	2.6%	—	$2.1K	2.8%
Esoteric Ebb	2¢	1.8%	—	$1.4K	1.9%
Meccha Chameleon	2¢	1.6%	—	$15.0K	20.6%
Fields of Mistria	1¢	0.9%	—	$960	1.3%
Mouse: P.I. For Hire	1¢	0.7%	—	$1.6K	2.2%
Witchbrook	1¢	0.6%	—	$1.1K	1.5%
Replaced	0¢	0.4%	—	$1.5K	2.1%
Vampire Crawlers	0¢	0.4%	—	$1.1K	1.5%
MIO: Memories in Orbit	0¢	0.2%	—	$1.2K	1.6%
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies	0¢	0.2%	—	$882	1.2%
Reanimal	0¢	0.2%	—	$992	1.4%
Phonopolis	0¢	0.2%	—	$1.0K	1.4%
Neverway	0¢	0.2%	—	$1.3K	1.8%
inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories	0¢	0.1%	—	$967	1.3%
MOLE	0¢	0.1%	—	$627	0.9%
Titanium Court	0¢	0.1%	—	$743	1.0%
Grave Seasons	0¢	0.1%	—	$779	1.1%
Tenebris Somnia	0¢	0.1%	—	$620	0.8%
Coffee Talk Tokyo	0¢	0.1%	—	$498	0.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$73.0K has been traded on this event in total, $332 of it in the last 24 hours, across 51 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The Game Awards are presented annually to honor achievements in the video game industry. The 2026 Game Awards are currently scheduled to be presented on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game. If a game is not officially nominated for the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards, including data from their website (e.g., https://thegameawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://thegameawards.com/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,305 shares of No.

Holder	Outcome held	Shares	Value at current price
0xa5ef39c3…	No	1,305	$653
Bulky-Eavesdropper	Yes	194	$97
Blind-Leaf	Yes	176	$88
Quizzical-Arrogance	Yes	150	$75
Starry-Studio	Yes	133	$66
Belated-Glue	Yes	110	$55
Victorious-Tape-Max	Yes	99	$49
Grown-Fence	Yes	95	$48
Giant-Otter-Recruit	Yes	87	$44
Admirable-Trust	Yes	65	$32

What are the latest trades?

Tape

BUY No — $133 at 66.7%BUY Yes — $97 at 26.1%BUY No — $61 at 98.9%

Time	Outcome	Side	Price	Size
Oct 24, 07:43 AM ET	Yes	SELL	41.3%	$5
Oct 24, 07:42 AM ET	No	BUY	55.4%	$7
Oct 22, 05:43 AM ET	Yes	SELL	26.0%	$3
Oct 22, 05:19 AM ET	No	BUY	57.8%	$6
Oct 22, 02:30 AM ET	Yes	BUY	45.2%	$2
Oct 18, 09:26 PM ET	No	SELL	64.0%	$14
Oct 18, 08:15 PM ET	Yes	SELL	36.6%	$2
Oct 18, 04:41 AM ET	Yes	SELL	27.0%	$3
Oct 16, 06:17 PM ET	Yes	SELL	1.0%	$1
Oct 16, 01:01 PM ET	Yes	SELL	26.0%	$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of The Game Awards: Best Independent Game?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Game A at 50.0%. Next is Game B at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/the-game-awards-best-independent-game-20260804145650?via=bro

How much money has been traded on The Game Awards: Best Independent Game?

$73.0K in total volume, with $332 traded in the last 24 hours across 51 markets.

When does The Game Awards: Best Independent Game end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://thegameawards.com/.

What is the most likely outcome of The Game Awards: Best Independent Game, according to Polymarket traders?

Game A, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

The Game Awards: Best Independent Game