As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Alibaba at 54.2% in Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — $52.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Alibaba, is priced at 54.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.7 pts; past week: +13.7 pts; past month: +51.7 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Alibaba has traded between 2.5% and 54.2%. It opened at 36.0% and last traded at 54.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 24.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 54.2% |
Alibaba is favored at 54.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | 54¢ | 54.2% | +10.7 pts | $14.6K | 27.6% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Z.ai | 12¢ | 12.0% | -2.0 pts | $10.1K | 19.1% |
| Moonshot | 11¢ | 11.0% | +0.5 pts | $15.1K | 28.6% |
| Xiaomi | 6¢ | 6.5% | -5.4 pts | $2.5K | 4.8% |
| MiniMax | 5¢ | 4.9% | -0.5 pts | $2.3K | 4.4% |
| DeepSeek | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $1.1K | 2.1% |
| ByteDance | 4¢ | 3.8% | -4.9 pts | $1.1K | 2.1% |
| Tencent | 4¢ | 3.7% | -0.3 pts | $1.1K | 2.0% |
| Baidu | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K | 6.3% |
| StepFun | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $827 | 1.6% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $782 | 1.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 48¢ / ask 61¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$52.8K has been traded on this event in total, $4.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 25 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,015 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,015 | $465 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 666 | $361 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 251 | $136 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 247 | $113 |
| Eminent-Accordion | Yes | 169 | $92 |
| All-Calculator | No | 126 | $58 |
| Impressive-Kiwi | Yes | 88 | $48 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 81 | $37 |
| Careful-Bunch | Yes | 80 | $43 |
| Irritating-Venti | Yes | 75 | $41 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.5% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.9% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 41.9% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.6% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.2% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Alibaba at 54.2%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/third-best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-october?via=bro
$52.8K in total volume, with $4.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 25 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs.
Alibaba, priced at 54.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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