As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Meta at 53.1% in Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? — $92.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Meta, is priced at 53.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: +7.3 pts; past month: +52.4 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Meta has traded between 0.1% and 59.2%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 59.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 32.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 41.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 37.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 32.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 6.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 59.2% |
Meta is favored at 53.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 53¢ | 53.1% | -6.0 pts | $7.2K | 7.8% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Z.ai | 24¢ | 24.3% | +14.0 pts | $11.6K | 12.5% |
| Xiaomi | 7¢ | 6.9% | +2.8 pts | $3.3K | 3.6% |
| Moonshot | 6¢ | 5.9% | -2.9 pts | $3.3K | 3.5% |
| Microsoft | 5¢ | 5.2% | -2.2 pts | $3.4K | 3.7% |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $7.2K | 7.8% |
| Tencent | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.0K | 3.2% |
| Alibaba | 3¢ | 2.7% | -0.1 pts | $13.6K | 14.7% |
| 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.1 pts | $14.5K | 15.7% | |
| Anthropic | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.8 pts | $2.9K | 3.2% |
| SpaceXAI | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $2.7K | 2.9% |
| Baidu | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $3.0K | 3.2% |
| Bytedance | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $3.0K | 3.2% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.5K | 1.6% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.3K | 2.5% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.6K | 2.8% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $2.2K | 2.4% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $2.1K | 2.3% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.6K | 1.7% |
| StepFun | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.6K | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$92.5K has been traded on this event in total, $806 of it in the last 24 hours, across 34 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,892 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,892 | $886 |
| Assured-Caption | Yes | 620 | $329 |
| All-Calculator | Yes | 483 | $257 |
| Sniveling-Dart | Yes | 403 | $214 |
| Modern-Overload | No | 322 | $151 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 168 | $89 |
| Silent-Raffle | Yes | 154 | $82 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 148 | $79 |
| Alienated-Cannibal | Yes | 136 | $72 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 135 | $72 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.8% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.6% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.5% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 05:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.6% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.6% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 04:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 03:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.4% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $49 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Meta at 53.1%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/third-best-text-arena-math-ai-lab-end-of-october?via=bro
$92.5K in total volume, with $806 traded in the last 24 hours across 34 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs.
Meta, priced at 53.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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