As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Zohran Mamdani at 25.5% in TIME Person of the Year 2026 — $160.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Zohran Mamdani, is priced at 25.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since May 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani has traded between 9.0% and 38.5%. It opened at 18.0% and last traded at 25.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 25.5% |
Zohran Mamdani is favored at 25.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $42.8K | 26.7% |
| Mark Carney | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $10.6K | 6.6% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 14¢ | 14.5% | -1.5 pts | $26.8K | 16.7% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 9¢ | 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $8.2K | 5.1% |
| Dario Amodei | 8¢ | 8.1% | +0.1 pts | $3.5K | 2.2% |
| Donald Trump | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $14.2K | 8.9% |
| Marco Rubio | 7¢ | 7.3% | +1.4 pts | $9.0K | 5.6% |
| Artificial Intelligence | 7¢ | 6.7% | -0.7 pts | $7.7K | 4.8% |
| Elon Musk | 6¢ | 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $4.0K | 2.5% |
| Victor Glover | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $202 | 0.1% |
| Christina Koch | 5¢ | 4.5% | +0.5 pts | $530 | 0.3% |
| Reid Wiseman | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $188 | 0.1% |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.1 pts | $9.1K | 5.7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.4 pts | $324 | 0.2% |
| James Talarico | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.4 pts | $3.9K | 2.4% |
| Péter Magyar | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $456 | 0.3% |
| Bad Bunny | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.1 pts | $298 | 0.2% |
| Jeremy Hansen | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $288 | 0.2% |
| Sam Altman | 3¢ | 2.8% | -1.3 pts | $341 | 0.2% |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.9 pts | $219 | 0.1% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 3¢ | 2.7% | +0.1 pts | $176 | 0.1% |
| ChatGPT | 3¢ | 2.7% | +0.1 pts | $146 | 0.1% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.2 pts | $397 | 0.2% |
| Alysa Liu | 2¢ | 2.3% | — | $2.1K | 1.3% |
| Ali Khamenei | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $91 | 0.1% |
| Ali G | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $10.8K | 6.8% |
| Jerome Powell | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $289 | 0.2% |
| Bernie Sanders | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $3.4K | 2.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 25¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$160.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 28 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,982 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa0f21e6d… | Yes | 7,982 | $2.0K |
| Brown-Tragedy | No | 2,884 | $2.1K |
| Traumatic-Pressroom | No | 1,802 | $1.3K |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 1,500 | $1.1K |
| Rectangular-Admission | No | 1,500 | $1.1K |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 1,345 | $1.0K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1,310 | $334 |
| Green-Recruit | Yes | 1,240 | $316 |
| Broken-Dogwood | No | 1,018 | $758 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor | No | 1,000 | $745 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 06:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 06:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $59 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Zohran Mamdani at 25.5%. Next is Mark Carney at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/time-person-of-the-year-2026?via=bro
$160.1K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 28 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Zohran Mamdani, priced at 25.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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