As of October 24, 2026, 09:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Candidate A wins at 50.0% in Toronto Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory? — $1.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Candidate A wins, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.
Candidate A wins is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate A wins | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other wins | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Chow 4-8% | 29¢ | 29.0% | -2.0 pts | $60 | 4.9% |
| Bradford 4-8% | 21¢ | 21.0% | +10.0 pts | $10 | 0.8% |
| Bradford 0-4% | 18¢ | 18.5% | — | $100 | 8.1% |
| Chow 0-4% | 17¢ | 17.0% | -6.5 pts | $292 | 23.7% |
| Chow 8-12% | 14¢ | 14.5% | -3.5 pts | $100 | 8.1% |
| Chow 12%+ | 14¢ | 14.0% | -0.5 pts | $63 | 5.1% |
| Bradford 8%+ | 5¢ | 5.5% | +1.6 pts | $607 | 49.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.2K has been traded on this event in total, $245 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026, to elect the mayor of Toronto, Ontario. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the October 26, 2026 election for Mayor of Toronto. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 20 | $10 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 10 | $5 |
| Jealous-Bat | Yes | 10 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 04:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 03:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Candidate A wins at 50.0%. Next is Other wins at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20261016143050914?via=bro
$1.2K in total volume, with $245 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Candidate A wins, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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