Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 28.0% in Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? — $314.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.3K.
Leading outcome
December 31
28%
A 28.0% price implies roughly a 28-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.5 pts7D +4.0 pts30D +3.0 pts
Bid
26¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 07, 2026: 13.5% – 55.5% · Opened at 55.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
Category
Iran, outage, Khamenei, Politics, cloudflare, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$314.7K
Volume (24h)
$4.3K
Liquidity
$25.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 28.0%
Resolution source
https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 28.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.

Since August 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 32.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202623.0%
Oct 17, 202624.0%
Oct 18, 202621.5%
Oct 19, 202621.5%
Oct 20, 202626.0%
Oct 22, 202655.5%
Oct 23, 202632.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 28.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3128¢28.0%-4.5 pts$77.1K24.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$314.7K has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21,697 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sparse-PossibleYes21,697$6.1K
Musty-FarmYes15,856$4.4K
Zigzag-BloggerNo13,083$9.4K
Fatal-ExpansionNo11,582$8.3K
Pleasant-LivingNo9,964$7.2K
Appropriate-CookieNo4,034$2.9K
Pitiful-ResetNo3,212$2.3K
Full-RealizationYes1,200$336
Mortified-PinaforeYes1,091$305
Belated-GlueYes676$189

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $64 at 28.7%BUY Yes — $43 at 28.5%BUY Yes — $32 at 32.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:19 PM ETNoBUY72.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:06 AM ETYesBUY28.0%$22
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY27.0%$3
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY26.9%$28
Oct 24, 10:35 AM ETYesBUY27.0%$14
Oct 24, 09:47 AM ETYesSELL28.7%$64
Oct 24, 09:44 AM ETYesBUY32.0%$32
Oct 24, 09:31 AM ETYesBUY29.0%$3
Oct 24, 09:30 AM ETYesBUY28.5%$43
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETYesBUY27.0%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...??

$314.7K in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d.

What is the most likely outcome of Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 28.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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