As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 28.0% in Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? — $314.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 28.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since August 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 32.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 32.5% |
December 31 is favored at 28.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28¢ | 28.0% | -4.5 pts | $77.1K | 24.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$314.7K has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21,697 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Possible | Yes | 21,697 | $6.1K |
| Musty-Farm | Yes | 15,856 | $4.4K |
| Zigzag-Blogger | No | 13,083 | $9.4K |
| Fatal-Expansion | No | 11,582 | $8.3K |
| Pleasant-Living | No | 9,964 | $7.2K |
| Appropriate-Cookie | No | 4,034 | $2.9K |
| Pitiful-Reset | No | 3,212 | $2.3K |
| Full-Realization | Yes | 1,200 | $336 |
| Mortified-Pinafore | Yes | 1,091 | $305 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 676 | $189 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.9% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.7% | $64 |
| Oct 24, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 09:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.5% | $43 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426?via=bro
$314.7K in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d.
December 31, priced at 28.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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