As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 18.0% in Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...? — $7.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 18.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 7.0% and 25.0%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 18.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 18.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 18¢ | 18.0% | -1.5 pts | $4.1K | 53.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tristan Buckmaster files a lawsuit against OpenAI, or any of its subsidiaries, executives, or employees, by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lawsuit in which Tristan Buckmaster is a named plaintiff, alone or jointly with others, will qualify. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 373 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 373 | $306 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 163 | $29 |
| Infatuated-Devastation | Yes | 127 | $23 |
| Weepy-Bidet | Yes | 50 | $9 |
| Rotating-Sound | Yes | 45 | $8 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 39 | $32 |
| 0x3c1133ef… | Yes | 34 | $6 |
| Primary-Weather-Bungalow | No | 34 | $28 |
| Opulent-Communicant | Yes | 30 | $5 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 22 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $11 |
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $28 |
| Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $13 |
| Oct 07, 06:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $16 |
| Oct 07, 02:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $17 |
| Oct 07, 02:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 07, 02:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 18.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tristan-buckmaster-sues-openai-by?via=bro
$7.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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