As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 89.2% in Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...? — $8.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 89.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.2 pts; past week: +37.2 pts; past month: +26.7 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 49.0% and 96.4%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 89.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.2% |
December 31 is favored at 89.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 89¢ | 89.2% | -7.2 pts | $1.8K | 21.0% |
| October 31 | 83¢ | 83.1% | -0.5 pts | $4.6K | 54.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 16¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.5K has been traded on this event in total, $460 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the White House publicly and officially announces a tariff decrease on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff decrease which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff on Canada with a tariff of a lower rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or higher rate will not qualify. The announced removal of a relevant existing tariff will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump acting in his official capacity, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 238 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strident-Soot | Yes | 238 | $213 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 131 | $14 |
| Generous-Decisionmaking | No | 118 | $13 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 71 | $63 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 65 | $7 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 60 | $6 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 53 | $48 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 50 | $5 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 41 | $37 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | No | 35 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.1% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.4% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 7.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.4% | $96 |
| Oct 24, 11:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.8% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.7% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 89.2%. Next is October 31 at 83.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-canada-tariff-decrease-byptptpt?via=bro
$8.5K in total volume, with $460 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 89.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.