Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 75.4% in Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...? — $9.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $970.
Leading outcome
October 31
75%
A 75.4% price implies roughly a 75-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +30.4 pts7D +58.9 pts30D +16.9 pts
Bid
60¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
31¢
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Range since September 10, 2026: 13.5% – 75.4% · Opened at 56.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?
Category
Canada, Tariffs, Politics, Trade War, US Canada Trade War, international affairs
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.8K
Volume (24h)
$970
Liquidity
$518
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 75.4%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 75.4%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +30.4 pts; past week: +58.9 pts; past month: +16.9 pts.

Since September 10, 2026, October 31 has traded between 13.5% and 75.4%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 75.4%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202617.0%
Oct 18, 202617.0%
Oct 19, 202618.5%
Oct 20, 202618.5%
Oct 22, 202613.5%
Oct 23, 202634.0%
Oct 24, 202675.4%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 75.4%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 3175¢75.4%+30.4 pts$7.1K72.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $970 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff increase which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of a higher rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or lower rate will not qualify. The announced imposition of a relevant new tariff at any rate will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House, including members of the Cabinet. A global/blanket tariff on all imports which does not specifically name Canada will not qualify. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own, unless they are announced by members of the Presidential Cabinet. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,173 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cheery-ScienceYes1,173$885
Ripe-CakeNo1,057$260
Primary-AgentYes593$447
Cultivated-DieselYes240$181
Straight-WrinkleNo216$53
Arid-CinemaNo200$49
Belated-GlueNo150$37
Glaring-FarrowNo128$31
Unnatural-EnergyNo126$31
Sparse-CookieYes110$83

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $225 at 70.0%SELL No — $194 at 51.0%BUY Yes — $125 at 40.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:17 PM ETYesBUY73.0%$22
Oct 24, 05:56 PM ETNoBUY40.0%$19
Oct 24, 05:55 PM ETNoBUY38.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:43 PM ETNoBUY6.9%$3
Oct 24, 04:33 PM ETNoBUY6.8%$1
Oct 24, 04:25 PM ETYesSELL96.0%$25
Oct 24, 03:02 PM ETNoBUY4.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:59 PM ETYesBUY97.0%$101
Oct 24, 02:58 PM ETYesBUY96.6%$46
Oct 24, 02:53 PM ETYesBUY83.3%$21

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 75.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-canada-tariff-increase-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...??

$9.8K in total volume, with $970 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 75.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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