As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 75.4% in Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...? — $9.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 75.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +30.4 pts; past week: +58.9 pts; past month: +16.9 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, October 31 has traded between 13.5% and 75.4%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 75.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 75.4% |
October 31 is favored at 75.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 75¢ | 75.4% | +30.4 pts | $7.1K | 72.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $970 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff increase which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of a higher rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or lower rate will not qualify. The announced imposition of a relevant new tariff at any rate will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House, including members of the Cabinet. A global/blanket tariff on all imports which does not specifically name Canada will not qualify. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own, unless they are announced by members of the Presidential Cabinet. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,173 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheery-Science | Yes | 1,173 | $885 |
| Ripe-Cake | No | 1,057 | $260 |
| Primary-Agent | Yes | 593 | $447 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 240 | $181 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 216 | $53 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 200 | $49 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 150 | $37 |
| Glaring-Farrow | No | 128 | $31 |
| Unnatural-Energy | No | 126 | $31 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 110 | $83 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 05:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.9% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.0% | $101 |
| Oct 24, 02:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.6% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 02:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.3% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 75.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-canada-tariff-increase-byptptpt?via=bro
$9.8K in total volume, with $970 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 75.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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