As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 26.5% in Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? — $222.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 26.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +9.5 pts.
Since February 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.0% and 41.0%. It opened at 21.5% and last traded at 26.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 26.5% |
December 31 is favored at 26.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 26¢ | 26.5% | -0.5 pts | $219.5K | 98.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$222.2K has been traded on this event in total, $362 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,394 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vigilant-Railing | No | 12,394 | $9.1K |
| Speedy-Plot | Yes | 9,086 | $2.4K |
| Careful-Semantics | Yes | 5,182 | $1.4K |
| Nimble-Pit | No | 5,073 | $3.7K |
| Giddy-Draft | Yes | 4,010 | $1.1K |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 3,332 | $2.4K |
| Brief-Fly | Yes | 2,700 | $716 |
| Belgaron | No | 2,402 | $1.8K |
| Adventurous-Poppy | Yes | 1,786 | $473 |
| Impartial-Circle | Yes | 1,514 | $401 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 08:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 08:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $148 |
| Oct 23, 08:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency?via=bro
$222.2K in total volume, with $362 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 26.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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