Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 26.5% in Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? — $222.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $362.
Leading outcome
December 31
26%
A 26.5% price implies roughly a 26-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +5.5 pts30D +9.5 pts
Bid
26¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 26, 2026: 9.0% – 41.0% · Opened at 21.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
Category
Trump, Politics, Trump Speech
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$222.2K
Volume (24h)
$362
Liquidity
$23.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 26.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 26.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +9.5 pts.

Since February 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.0% and 41.0%. It opened at 21.5% and last traded at 26.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202621.0%
Oct 18, 202628.5%
Oct 19, 202630.5%
Oct 20, 202629.5%
Oct 22, 202637.5%
Oct 23, 202627.0%
Oct 24, 202626.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 26.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3126¢26.5%-0.5 pts$219.5K98.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$222.2K has been traded on this event in total, $362 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,394 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Vigilant-RailingNo12,394$9.1K
Speedy-PlotYes9,086$2.4K
Careful-SemanticsYes5,182$1.4K
Nimble-PitNo5,073$3.7K
Giddy-DraftYes4,010$1.1K
Verifiable-ObstacleNo3,332$2.4K
Brief-FlyYes2,700$716
BelgaronNo2,402$1.8K
Adventurous-PoppyYes1,786$473
Impartial-CircleYes1,514$401

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $148 at 74.0%SELL No — $109 at 72.5%BUY Yes — $100 at 31.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:54 AM ETNoSELL73.0%$0
Oct 24, 11:54 AM ETNoSELL73.0%$0
Oct 24, 11:54 AM ETNoBUY74.0%$100
Oct 23, 08:53 PM ETNoSELL72.0%$17
Oct 23, 08:53 PM ETNoSELL72.0%$1
Oct 23, 08:53 PM ETNoBUY74.0%$148
Oct 23, 08:31 PM ETNoBUY74.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:29 PM ETNoBUY72.0%$12
Oct 23, 02:20 PM ETNoSELL70.0%$2
Oct 23, 02:20 PM ETNoSELL69.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Trump declares election interference national emergency by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Trump declares election interference national emergency by...??

$222.2K in total volume, with $362 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 26.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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