As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...? — $25.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 47.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 13.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 13.5% |
December 31 is favored at 13.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | 13.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.4K | 9.5% |
| November 30 | 7¢ | 7.1% | -5.1 pts | $1.1K | 4.4% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $4.8K | 19.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.1K has been traded on this event in total, $617 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies. Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 774 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stark-Therapy | No | 774 | $670 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 275 | $37 |
| Thorough-Neighbourhood | Yes | 202 | $27 |
| Hidden-Bafflement | Yes | 150 | $20 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | Yes | 146 | $20 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 143 | $124 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 56 | $8 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 42 | $6 |
| Coarse-Revolution | Yes | 28 | $4 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 22 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $109 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. Next is November 30 at 7.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order-byptptpt?via=bro
$25.1K in total volume, with $617 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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