Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...? — $25.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $617.
Leading outcome
December 31
14%
A 13.5% price implies roughly a 14-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts7D −1.0 pts30D +2.0 pts
December 3113.5%
November 307.1%
Bid
11¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 11.5% – 47.0% · Opened at 45.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?
Category
Iran, Trump, Economy, Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$25.1K
Volume (24h)
$617
Liquidity
$2.6K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 13.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 47.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 13.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202614.5%
Oct 18, 202615.0%
Oct 19, 202615.5%
Oct 20, 202620.0%
Oct 22, 202620.5%
Oct 23, 202621.5%
Oct 24, 202613.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 13.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3114¢13.5%-2.0 pts$2.4K9.5%
November 307¢7.1%-5.1 pts$1.1K4.4%
October 313¢2.9%-0.1 pts$4.8K19.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$25.1K has been traded on this event in total, $617 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies. Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 774 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Stark-TherapyNo774$670
Belated-GlueYes275$37
Thorough-NeighbourhoodYes202$27
Hidden-BafflementYes150$20
Remarkable-UnderpassYes146$20
Natural-VacationNo143$124
Known-UseYes56$8
Snappy-RoosterYes42$6
Coarse-RevolutionYes28$4
Quizzical-HireNo22$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $396 at 92.1%BUY No — $137 at 91.1%BUY No — $109 at 82.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:29 AM ETNoBUY83.0%$35
Oct 24, 04:29 AM ETNoBUY82.0%$109
Oct 24, 04:28 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:28 AM ETNoBUY82.0%$16
Oct 24, 04:28 AM ETNoBUY80.0%$40
Oct 24, 03:17 AM ETYesBUY20.0%$10
Oct 24, 03:00 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:33 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$4
Oct 24, 02:33 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:32 AM ETNoBUY82.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. Next is November 30 at 7.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...??

$25.1K in total volume, with $617 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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