Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 50.0% in Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31? — $761 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D +2.0 pts
Bid
2¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
96¢
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Range since July 31, 2026: 41.5% – 52.5% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?
Category
TMTG, Trump, merger, Economy, Business, Politics, acquisition, Acquisitions, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$761
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$3
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 50.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: +2.0 pts.

Since July 31, 2026, December 31 has traded between 41.5% and 52.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 50.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202650.0%
Oct 16, 202650.0%
Oct 18, 202650.0%
Oct 19, 202650.0%
Oct 20, 202650.0%
Oct 22, 202650.0%
Oct 23, 202650.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3150¢50.0%—$293.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 96¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$761 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18, 2025, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0x0b459a74…Yes29$14
Belated-GlueNo29$14

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $24 at 83.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 02, 09:10 PM ETYesBUY83.0%$24

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-media-x-tae-technologies-merger-closed-by-july-31-20260629151200479?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31??

$761 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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