As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 50.0% in Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31? — $761 traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +2.0 pts.
Since July 31, 2026, December 31 has traded between 41.5% and 52.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 50.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.0% |
December 31 is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $29 | 3.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 96¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$761 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18, 2025, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0b459a74… | Yes | 29 | $14 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 29 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 09:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $24 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-media-x-tae-technologies-merger-closed-by-july-31-20260629151200479?via=bro
$761 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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