As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.5% in Trump publicly insults Warsh by...? — $12.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.0% and 40.0%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 18.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.5% |
December 31 is favored at 18.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 18¢ | 18.5% | +5.5 pts | $6.6K | 50.8% |
| November 30 | 6¢ | 6.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.9K | 30.6% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.2% | -0.8 pts | $2.4K | 18.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $361 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,273 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noisy-Chill | Yes | 2,273 | $420 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | No | 1,953 | $1.6K |
| Shimmering-Reindeer | No | 1,248 | $1.0K |
| Linear-Heir | No | 430 | $350 |
| Nautical-Placement | Yes | 381 | $70 |
| Trivial-Idea | Yes | 300 | $56 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 229 | $42 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 100 | $18 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 79 | $15 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 50 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 06:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.5%. Next is November 30 at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by?via=bro
$12.9K in total volume, with $361 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 18.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.