Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.5% in Trump publicly insults Warsh by...? — $12.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $361.
Leading outcome
December 31
18%
A 18.5% price implies roughly a 18-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +5.5 pts30D −3.5 pts
December 3118.5%
November 306.5%
Bid
17¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 11.0% – 40.0% · Opened at 34.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
Category
Fed, Trump, Warsh, Culture, Economy, Politics, Kevin Warsh
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.9K
Volume (24h)
$361
Liquidity
$3.5K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 18.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.0% and 40.0%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 18.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202615.5%
Oct 16, 202614.5%
Oct 18, 202618.0%
Oct 19, 202618.0%
Oct 20, 202618.0%
Oct 23, 202613.0%
Oct 24, 202618.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 18.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3118¢18.5%+5.5 pts$6.6K50.8%
November 306¢6.5%+0.5 pts$3.9K30.6%
October 314¢4.2%-0.8 pts$2.4K18.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $361 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,273 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Noisy-ChillYes2,273$420
Quarrelsome-FilthNo1,953$1.6K
Shimmering-ReindeerNo1,248$1.0K
Linear-HeirNo430$350
Nautical-PlacementYes381$70
Trivial-IdeaYes300$56
Belated-GlueYes229$42
Piercing-FormationYes100$18
Cool-PattypanYes79$15
Attentive-CrewmanYes50$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $413 at 86.0%BUY No — $321 at 93.0%BUY No — $197 at 91.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY97.0%$17
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY97.0%$40
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY97.0%$39
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY97.0%$19
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesSELL3.7%$1
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY96.3%$19
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY96.3%$19
Oct 24, 04:00 AM ETYesBUY7.0%$4
Oct 23, 10:48 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$15
Oct 23, 06:12 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Trump publicly insults Warsh by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.5%. Next is November 30 at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Trump publicly insults Warsh by...??

$12.9K in total volume, with $361 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Trump publicly insults Warsh by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 18.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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