As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.7% in Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? — $30.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.8 pts; past month: +2.1 pts.
Since July 24, 2026, No has traded between 91.9% and 98.8%. It opened at 93.5% and last traded at 96.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.7% |
No is favored at 96.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.7% | -0.1 pts | $30.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.1 pts | $30.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.5K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,073 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Witty-Conviction | No | 1,073 | $1.0K |
| Corny-Mode | Yes | 954 | $32 |
| Chubby-Prior | No | 807 | $780 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 595 | $20 |
| Optimal-Communion | No | 500 | $483 |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 488 | $472 |
| Full-Mythology | Yes | 418 | $14 |
| Unique-Dentist | Yes | 292 | $10 |
| Entire-Essential | Yes | 218 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 188 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 08:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $12 |
| Oct 08, 05:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $39 |
| Oct 05, 04:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $12 |
| Oct 04, 01:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $10 |
| Sep 28, 05:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.7%. Next is Yes at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-tries-to-fire-warsh-in-2026-20260724155002773?via=bro
$30.5K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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