Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 37.0% in Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...? — $46.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $11.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027
37%
A 37.0% price implies roughly a 37-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −13.5 pts30D +7.5 pts
June 30, 202737.0%
December 31, 202628.0%
Bid
31¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
12¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 14, 2026: 8.5% – 74.5% · Opened at 55.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
Category
F-35, Trump, Turkey, erdogan, Politics, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$46.4K
Volume (24h)
$11
Liquidity
$720
Markets
2
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027 — 37.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 37.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -13.5 pts; past month: +7.5 pts.

Since July 14, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 8.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 38.0%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202629.5%
Oct 13, 202629.5%
Oct 15, 202629.5%
Oct 16, 202629.5%
Oct 18, 202649.5%
Oct 19, 202637.5%
Oct 20, 202638.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027 is favored at 37.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 202737¢37.0%—$12.5K27.0%
December 31, 202628¢28.0%+7.5 pts$33.9K73.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 31¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$46.4K has been traded on this event in total, $11 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 364 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Lustrous-ParchmentNo364$230
Finished-WheelYes158$58
Evil-RowYes41$15
Bouncy-SavingYes40$15
Petty-PuzzleYes40$15
Fuzzy-DraftYes22$8
Squiggly-DescriptionYes19$7
Belated-GlueYes17$6
Worrisome-FrescoYes14$5
Snappy-RoosterYes10$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $188 at 87.0%BUY No — $160 at 81.0%BUY No — $79 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:15 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$4
Oct 17, 05:34 AM ETYesBUY30.0%$15
Oct 12, 12:30 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$1
Oct 12, 12:30 PM ETNoSELL84.0%$8
Oct 12, 11:40 AM ETNoSELL85.5%$17
Oct 12, 11:37 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Oct 12, 09:51 AM ETNoSELL70.0%$14
Oct 12, 05:10 AM ETYesSELL14.0%$3
Oct 01, 07:25 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Sep 30, 06:38 AM ETNoBUY84.0%$4

Related markets

More Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · 24H VOL $2.01M

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 37.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/turkey-rejoins-f-35-program-byptptpt-20260708215709215?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...??

$46.4K in total volume, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.