As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 37.0% in Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...? — $46.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 37.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -13.5 pts; past month: +7.5 pts.
Since July 14, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 8.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 38.0% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 37.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 37¢ | 37.0% | — | $12.5K | 27.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 28¢ | 28.0% | +7.5 pts | $33.9K | 73.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 31¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$46.4K has been traded on this event in total, $11 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 364 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lustrous-Parchment | No | 364 | $230 |
| Finished-Wheel | Yes | 158 | $58 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 41 | $15 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Petty-Puzzle | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | Yes | 22 | $8 |
| Squiggly-Description | Yes | 19 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 17 | $6 |
| Worrisome-Fresco | Yes | 14 | $5 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 10 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $4 |
| Oct 17, 05:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $15 |
| Oct 12, 12:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 12:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $8 |
| Oct 12, 11:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.5% | $17 |
| Oct 12, 11:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 09:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $14 |
| Oct 12, 05:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 01, 07:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Sep 30, 06:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 37.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/turkey-rejoins-f-35-program-byptptpt-20260708215709215?via=bro
$46.4K in total volume, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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