As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.5% in Turkish troops enter Yemen by...? — $5.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -6.0 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.5% and 21.0%. It opened at 21.0% and last traded at 4.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.5% |
December 31 is favored at 4.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $1.8K | 32.9% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $3.8K | 67.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.6K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkish troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Turkish troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Turkey. Only members of the regular armed forces of Turkey will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Turkey who are not members of the Turkish armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Turkish command or on Turkey’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Turkish-led coalition, will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Turkish troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Yemen, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Turkish troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Turkish emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 273 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 273 | $260 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 166 | $7 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 100 | $96 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 73 | $3 |
| Grumpy-Wrist | Yes | 59 | $3 |
| Unwelcome-Smell | No | 40 | $38 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 38 | $36 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 35 | $2 |
| 0x46299616… | Yes | 30 | $1 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 21 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 05:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 01:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 01:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 01:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $83 |
| Oct 21, 05:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/turkish-troops-enter-yemen-by?via=bro
$5.6K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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