Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.0% in Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? — $574.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.8K.
Leading outcome
No
92%
A 92.0% price implies roughly a 92-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −20.5 pts30D −20.5 pts
No92.0%
Yes8.0%
Bid
7¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since June 17, 2026: 43.0% – 92.0% · Opened at 54.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Category
Politics, Charlie Kirk, Trump, Culture, Kirk, Charlie
Scheduled end
July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$574.9K
Volume (24h)
$4.8K
Liquidity
$16.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 92.0%
Resolution source
https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -20.5 pts; past month: -20.5 pts.

Since June 17, 2026, No has traded between 43.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 92.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202669.5%
Oct 16, 202671.0%
Oct 18, 202671.5%
Oct 19, 202671.5%
Oct 20, 202671.5%
Oct 23, 202692.0%
Oct 24, 202692.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 92.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No92¢92.0%—$574.9K100.0%
Yes8¢8.0%—$574.9K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$574.9K has been traded on this event in total, $4.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

Resolution source: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 37,098 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Whimsical-TerminalNo37,098$34.1K
Unsteady-DrakeYes10,516$841
Awful-PayeeYes9,101$728
Tremendous-DivideYes9,042$723
Pure-ThreatNo6,226$5.7K
Recent-EveningwearYes6,141$491
Any-AdviserNo5,987$5.5K
Unlined-PoleNo4,000$3.7K
Altruistic-ShawYes3,437$275
JoeyJokesAlotYes2,423$194

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $1.3K at 8.1%SELL Yes — $703 at 28.0%SELL Yes — $495 at 25.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:43 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$19
Oct 24, 09:56 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$29
Oct 24, 09:55 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$13
Oct 24, 09:55 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$32
Oct 24, 05:18 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$29
Oct 24, 03:05 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$4
Oct 24, 02:33 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$210
Oct 24, 01:19 AM ETYesSELL7.4%$13
Oct 24, 12:06 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 23, 09:52 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.0%. Next is Yes at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide??

$574.9K in total volume, with $4.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? end?

The market is scheduled to end July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf.

What is the most likely outcome of Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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