As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.0% in Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? — $574.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -20.5 pts; past month: -20.5 pts.
Since June 17, 2026, No has traded between 43.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 92.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.0% |
No is favored at 92.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 92¢ | 92.0% | — | $574.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $574.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$574.9K has been traded on this event in total, $4.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Resolution source: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 37,098 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 37,098 | $34.1K |
| Unsteady-Drake | Yes | 10,516 | $841 |
| Awful-Payee | Yes | 9,101 | $728 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 9,042 | $723 |
| Pure-Threat | No | 6,226 | $5.7K |
| Recent-Eveningwear | Yes | 6,141 | $491 |
| Any-Adviser | No | 5,987 | $5.5K |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 4,000 | $3.7K |
| Altruistic-Shaw | Yes | 3,437 | $275 |
| JoeyJokesAlot | Yes | 2,423 | $194 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 09:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 09:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $210 |
| Oct 24, 01:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.4% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.0%. Next is Yes at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide?via=bro
$574.9K in total volume, with $4.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf.
No, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.