As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.8% in UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? — $122.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.3 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.2 pts.
Since April 28, 2026, No has traded between 84.5% and 96.9%. It opened at 87.5% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.0% |
No is favored at 94.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.8% | -0.3 pts | $122.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.2% | +0.3 pts | $122.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$122.2K has been traded on this event in total, $120 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 02:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 690 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 690 | $36 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 550 | $29 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 420 | $22 |
| Known-Use | No | 406 | $385 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 329 | $312 |
| United-Pantology | Yes | 204 | $11 |
| Far-Flung-Transom | No | 166 | $158 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 148 | $140 |
| Unaware-Convert-Hassock | No | 118 | $112 |
| Deadly-Cofactor | Yes | 116 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $204 |
| Oct 17, 09:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $29 |
| Oct 14, 03:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.1% | $28 |
| Oct 14, 03:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.1% | $47 |
| Oct 14, 03:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.6% | $320 |
| Oct 14, 03:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $158 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.8%. Next is Yes at 5.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uae-x-saudi-arabia-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026?via=bro
$122.2K in total volume, with $120 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 02:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.