As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan at 55.5% in UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card) — $626 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan, is priced at 55.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -5.5 pts.
Since October 18, 2026, Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan has traded between 54.0% and 67.5%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 54.0%.
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan is favored at 55.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan | 56¢ | 55.5% | +1.5 pts | $626 | 100.0% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano to win by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan to win by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano in Round 1 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano in Round 2 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano in Round 3 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano in Round 4 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Moicano in Round 5 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan in Round 1 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan in Round 2 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan in Round 3 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan in Round 4 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nolan in Round 5 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Decision or Draw | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Renato Moicano | 44¢ | 44.5% | -1.5 pts | $626 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$626 has been traded on this event in total, $666 of it in the last 24 hours, across 27 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 103 shares of Tom Nolan.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate-Hotdog | Tom Nolan | 103 | $57 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Tom Nolan | 82 | $46 |
| Scornful-West | Renato Moicano | 77 | $34 |
| Married-Lay | Renato Moicano | 67 | $30 |
| Golden-Console | Renato Moicano | 50 | $22 |
| Second-Hand-Elixir | Tom Nolan | 41 | $23 |
| Embellished-Uncle-Finding | Tom Nolan | 20 | $11 |
| Magnificent-Occupation-Fiery | Renato Moicano | 18 | $8 |
| Golden-Orientation | Renato Moicano | 15 | $7 |
| Uneven-Salami | Renato Moicano | 11 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:02 PM ET | Renato Moicano | BUY | 45.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | Tom Nolan | BUY | 55.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | Tom Nolan | SELL | 54.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Tom Nolan | SELL | 54.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | Tom Nolan | BUY | 55.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | Tom Nolan | BUY | 55.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | Renato Moicano | SELL | 45.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | Renato Moicano | BUY | 46.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | Renato Moicano | BUY | 46.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:35 PM ET | Tom Nolan | BUY | 55.0% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan at 55.5%. Next is Fight to Go the Distance? at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31?via=bro
$626 in total volume, with $666 traded in the last 24 hours across 27 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/events.
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Tom Nolan, priced at 55.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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